$BTC That performance is really embarrassing.

Before and after the Iran-U.S. conflict.

U.S. stocks have been steadily recovering.

BTC, on the other hand, is still falling.

This isn't risk assets rising together.

It's clearly a flow of funds away.

The data is very straightforward: before and after the war, BTC dropped from 63.8k to 62.5k, a decline of about 2%; but the S&P 500 rose from 6.88k to 7.5k, an increase of about 9%. Both are risk assets—one is recovering, the other is still bleeding.

This indicates that the market isn't lacking risk appetite now, but that risk appetite hasn't clearly returned to crypto. On the U.S. stock side, there are expectations of rate cuts, AI, corporate earnings, and a cooling of safe-haven demand, so funds are willing to continue chasing certainty; but on the BTC side, outflows from ETFs, spot selling pressure, miner stress, liquidation liquidity, and high-leverage positions are holding it back.

The most frustrating part is that the macro environment is clearly starting to improve, yet BTC hasn't kept up. Normally, with Iran-U.S. tensions easing, oil prices falling, and stock markets rebounding, BTC should follow the risk-on trend, but now it continues to weaken, indicating that internal issues in the crypto space haven't been fully cleaned up yet.

So, we can't just look at external positive factors. New highs in U.S. stocks don't necessarily mean BTC will rise together; what we really need to wait for is the recovery of BTC's own fundamentals: ETF inflows resuming, spot selling pressure easing, key supports holding, and the price regaining its resistance levels.

U.S. stocks have already shaken off the shadow of war.

BTC is still stuck in its own liquidation pit. #我的Gate交易时刻 #预测世界杯巴西VS海地 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛