Goldman Sachs does not expect the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates in 2026! Revises the gold target price down to $4,900.

No longer waiting for the Federal Reserve to cut rates this year, Goldman Sachs backs off on its gold price outlook. On June 19, Goldman Sachs lowered its year-end gold price forecast by $500 per ounce, reducing the December gold target price from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said that gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the increase will be smaller than previously expected—the key driver is that the timing of Fed rate cuts has been pushed back.
(Background recap: Gold dips below $4,200! This year’s gains are wiped out, the probability of rate hikes surges to 70%, and safe-haven assets collectively retreat.)
(Additional background: Waller’s first day in the role as Fed Chair—Fed keeps rates unchanged; the dot plot is significantly revised upward on inflation, and the entire rate-path is raised.)

Key Takeaways

• Goldman Sachs trims its December gold target price to $4,900 per ounce, cutting $500 from the prior forecast.
• The main reason is that Goldman Sachs pushes expectations for Fed rate cuts out to June and December 2027 and also lowers its forecast for gold ETF inflows.
• Goldman Sachs remains broadly positive on the structure of gold prices, but tactically has become more cautious, seeing near-term downside risks.

No longer expecting the Federal Reserve to step in with rate cuts this year, Goldman Sachs revises its outlook for gold prices downward—cutting its forecast by $500 per ounce. The December gold target falls from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce.

Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven emphasize that this does not indicate a bearish view. Gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the pace is weaker.

“We have revised the December gold target price down to $4,900 per ounce, meaning gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the gains will be smaller than previously expected. Our view on gold remains constructive on a structural basis, but we have become more cautious tactically, with risks of near-term downside and potential for medium-term upside.”

The delay in rate cuts is the main reason; Waller’s hawkishness throws off the schedule

The key behind the downgrade is that Goldman Sachs economists have pushed back the timing of U.S. rate cuts. The latest expectation is that the Federal Reserve will only cut rates in June and December of next year (2027), later than the prior estimates of December 2026 and March 2027—meaning it is moved back another step. Forecasts for gold ETF inflows are also lowered accordingly.

The analysts add that, given the first meeting after taking office by the Federal Reserve’s new chair, Waller (Kevin Warsh), where his stance was “unexpectedly hawkish,” market concerns about the central bank’s independence may be limited. Notably, this logic of “suppressing zero-yield assets” also weighs on Bitcoin—BTC also briefly fell below $62,000 this week.

Frequently Asked Questions

Why did Goldman Sachs lower its gold price forecast?

Goldman Sachs pushed back the timing of Fed rate cuts to June and December 2027 and lowered its forecast for gold ETF inflows. As a result, it reduced the December gold price target from $5,400 to $4,900 per ounce—essentially cutting $500.

Does Goldman Sachs still like gold going forward?

Still leaning positive. Analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven say gold prices are expected to rise in the second half of the year, though with a smaller increase. Structurally, it remains constructive, but tactically it stays prudent, watching for near-term downside and medium-term upside risks.