Update.

The offline signing ceremony for the US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding originally scheduled to take place in Switzerland today has been canceled. U.S. Vice President Vance canceled his trip to Switzerland, and Iran has also announced that negotiations in Switzerland will be postponed. The direct reason is that Israel has continued military operations within a 10-kilometer deep zone in Lebanon.

Iran has warned that as long as Israel continues to strike Hezbollah, the memorandum will be declared invalid. Although the 60-day negotiation window opened on June 18, the implementation of the agreement is now wavering, and the biggest variable that was previously expected is coming to fruition.

At the same time, disagreements between the U.S. and Israel regarding Middle East policy have been made public. Yesterday, Vice President Vance sharply criticized Israel at a White House press conference, saying it has shown “bizarre panic” and “hysteria” toward the US-Iran agreement, and warning that far-right officials have “seriously insufficient” trust in the United States.

Vance said that the United States provides Israel with $4 billion in military aid every year, and two-thirds of its defense weapons are American-made. Israel cannot solve every national security issue simply through killing.

U.S. pressure on Israel is escalating.

If Israel converges on its military actions under U.S. pressure, the implementation of the US-Iran agreement is expected to return to the right track, and BTC is expected to gradually recover.

But if Israel ignores the warnings, continues to escalate, and even carries out airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, the rift between the U.S. and Israel will deepen, which would increase uncertainty in the Middle East, and the 60-day window could break early. $BTC

In the logic behind BTC’s previous rebound, embedded expectations of peace are being weakened. The short-term direction depends entirely on Israel’s next move.

If hostilities subside, the rebound may stabilize; if escalation continues, support will be tested, with a look toward below $60000.