Israel conducts airstrikes in Lebanon, Iran puts US-Iran nuclear talks on hold, Middle East conflicts worsen again, peace negotiations are hindered, geopolitical uncertainties rise, safe-haven funds instinctively prefer to buy gold, and the conventional logic is bullish for gold prices.

This round of market has already formed a fixed inverse logic:
Middle East conflict escalation → rising oil prices → market worries about inflation rebound → Federal Reserve delay in rate cuts, dollar strengthening, rising real US bond yields → stronger dollar suppresses gold priced in dollars.
Simply put: the more intense the conflict, the higher oil prices, the weaker the rate cut expectations, and the easier gold is pressured to fall. Recently, there have been multiple instances where geopolitical tensions caused gold prices to decline instead.

Just around the 4100 support level, combined with geopolitical conflict effects, short-term bullish signals appear, but the overall remains bearish! Trade short near 4160-4180, see 4124, reduce positions and watch for a break below 4120 targeting 4080.