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#FOMC Impact Continues to Evolve
The dot plot is the most dangerous thing; it doesn't mean the Fed will definitely act, but it puts the true thoughts of nine officials on the table.
Raising interest rates by 25 basis points or more before the end of the year is no longer an "if," but a "high probability."
The market reaction is direct: U.S. stocks plummet, yields soar.
The biggest fear in the crypto world is this kind of "expectation gap."
In the past, everyone was hoping for rate cuts; now they are being coldly disappointed.
Those with high leverage and long risk assets may have to experience another bloodbath this time.
Institutions might continue to band together defensively, while retail investors get left behind.
My personal view is a bit more pessimistic:
This macro environment is more complex than 2024 and 2025.
High interest rates + geopolitical uncertainties + tightening regulations—three-pronged attack.
In the short term, I will continue to reduce risk exposure and hold enough cash for the real lows.
Don’t fucking go all-in betting on a soft landing; reality never follows the script.