6.19 Brother Hao’s Midday Thoughts

Let’s just chat about recent Bitcoin market trends. After this round of decline, I believe many friends have started to think about “bottom-fishing.”
To be honest, I also had the idea of bottom-fishing at first. The market has fallen a full 20,000 points from the high level—so it’s only natural to think that a rebound might be coming. But after thinking it through calmly, you have to stay clear-headed: investing can’t rely on subjective guesses; you need to use rational logic to analyze the market.

Next, let’s sort out whether it’s really suitable to enter the market and bottom-fish right now:
1. From a technical perspective, the price has indeed touched a key support level and is currently in a densely traded historical range. Plenty of buy-side demand has been deposited within this area. However, it’s clearly visible that today’s daily trading volume has shrunk noticeably compared with the past few days. This is a “rebound with low volume.” Such rebounds tend to have weak sustainability, and the overall downtrend hasn’t been reversed.
2. The core reason this round of market action has weakened is the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy direction. The market’s expectations for rate cuts are being pushed back overall, and U.S. Treasury yields have continued to rise, firmly weighing down the price action.
3. The steady erosion of bullish confidence is also a key trigger for the rapid drop in the short term. Spot ETF funds continue to flow out on a large scale, and major long-term holders on-chain are selling in concentrated fashion—bulls don’t have enough confidence to push through.

Putting these points together, for friends who plan to bottom-fish in the near term, it may be better to wait patiently a bit longer. I’m also waiting for the right bottom-fishing opportunity. It’s not that I don’t want to enter—the timing isn’t mature yet. Once the market signals are in place, I will let everyone know as well.