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Yesterday’s review: Czech vs South Africa — the actual result was 1-1. The model’s direction was that Czech would remain unbeaten, and the direction was correct. The highest-probability home win didn’t come through, and the 1-1 result moved into the top-5 score prediction contenders.
This model wasn’t completely wrong. The issue was that it rated Czech’s ability to win a bit too highly. South Africa’s defense and physical contest dragged the match into a position of balance; small-score outcomes and draws were actually possible risks. So 1-1 falls under “the direction can be maintained, but the home win is not steady.”
Switzerland vs