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US-Iran Ceasefire Eases Geopolitical Risks, Gold Continues Correction

Focus on Gold:

US interest rate policy and projections
Easing Middle East geopolitical tensions
Friday, June 19, 2026 – Gold prices opened weaker at $4,204 per troy ounce, continuing the correction after the FOMC decision to keep the Fed Funds Rate in the 3.50-3.75% range. Although interest rates remain unchanged, nine out of nineteen Federal Reserve officials project at least one rate hike before the end of the year. Market consensus via CME FedWatch Tool now estimates an 85% probability for December, up significantly from 61% before the release. The strengthening dollar, reaching its highest level of the year, also pressures non-dollar investors’ purchasing power, worsening selling pressure on precious metals.

Risk-off sentiment that has supported gold so far is fading after the US and Iran signed a temporary ceasefire agreement. The deal eases geopolitical risk premiums in the Middle East region and reduces inflation expectations related to soaring energy prices. Although President Trump inserted a warning clause that attacks could resume if Iran breaches the commitments, markets tend to interpret this agreement as a short-term de-escalation signal.

With the Fed Funds Rate potentially rising one or two more times this year, the higher-for-longer scenario increasingly pressures non-yielding gold. In response to these fundamental changes, Goldman Sachs has cut its end-2026 gold price target from $5,400 to $4,900 per troy ounce.

Technically, the nearest support level for gold prices is around $4,163 to $4,118, while the nearest resistance is at $4,291 to $4,374. If selling pressure increases, deeper support is seen at $3,990, while medium-term resistance is in the $4,502 area.