Goldman Sachs expects the Federal Reserve will not cut interest rates within the year and has lowered its full-year gold target price

According to market sources, Goldman Sachs has cut its year-end gold target price by $500 per ounce, revising the December gold target to $4,900 per ounce. The main reason is that the firm no longer expects the Federal Reserve to cut rates in 2026.

In a report, analysts Lina Thomas and Daan Struyven said that gold prices are still expected to rise in the second half of the year, but the increase will be less than previously anticipated.

They maintain a constructive view of the structural outlook for gold prices, but take a cautious tactical stance, believing there are downside risks for gold prices in the near term and upside risks over the medium term.

The core factor behind this downgrade is that Goldman Sachs’ economists have significantly pushed back their expectations for U.S. rate cuts, moving the timeline from the previously expected December 2026 and March 2027 to June and December next year.

At the same time, on this basis, weakened market expectations for inflows into gold ETFs has also further driven the downward revision of gold prices.

In addition, the analysts added that the first Federal Reserve meeting under Waller’s leadership showed an “unexpectedly hawkish” stance, which to some extent eased market concerns about central bank independence.

As of this Thursday, gold closed at $4,226.31 per ounce on COMEX, down 3.09% over the past 24 hours; today, spot gold prices continue to follow a downward trend.

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