#预测世界杯巴西VS海地 I looked at the data from Polymarket, Brazil's win probability is 88-90%, Haiti only 4%, and a draw at 7%. This huge disparity essentially announces that the outcome is a foregone conclusion.

But the real trading opportunities are not in the win/draw/loss market. I'm focusing on two secondary markets: Brazil's total goals over 2.5 at 62%, Haiti's total goals under 0.5 at 60%. These two data points are worth considering.

In the first round, Brazil was held to a 1-1 draw by Morocco, with Vinicius equalizing, and Alisson making two saves in stoppage time to secure 1 point. Ancelotti faced significant pressure after the match; there was no room for relaxation against Haiti. Moreover, Brazil has not failed to win in the first two rounds since 1978, so this match must be a win—and a convincing one.

My strategy: Brazil -2.5 points or total goals over 3.5, these two options have higher value than simply betting on Brazil to win. The scoreline leans toward 4-0 or 5-0.

I've already placed my bets, waiting to harvest on Saturday morning.