Middle East is igniting again, but gold couldn't hold on

As the conflict between Israel and southern Lebanon escalates, logically, gold should be pushed higher by safe-haven sentiment.
But this time, the market isn't that simple; gold not only failed to rally strongly, but continued to come under pressure.

The reasons are also clear.

On one side, the situation in the Middle East is tightening again, with signals like shelling, firefights, and airlifting of the wounded indicating that risks are still emerging.
On the other side, the Fed's hawkish expectations are fermenting again, with interest rates and the dollar continuing to pressure gold.
In other words, gold is now facing not just one bearish factor, but two forces squeezing it simultaneously.

This is quite interesting.
Geopolitical conflicts should normally boost safe-haven premiums, but if macro expectations are stronger, funds will still prioritize interest rate considerations.

So, this round of gold weakness isn't just "Middle East isn't enough," but the market is telling you: safe-haven sentiment isn't strong enough yet, and interest rate pressures haven't eased.
From a trading perspective, the most important thing now isn't guessing whether gold will immediately reverse,
but whether the conflict will continue to spill over, and whether the Fed's hawkish expectations will keep intensifying.
As long as one of these two factors loosens, gold will be more likely to truly stop falling.

Gold right now isn't because no one is bullish,
but because the market is temporarily unwilling to bid up its price.
$XAU
#沃什首次FOMC维持利率，放弃前瞻指引