#预测市场监管挑战

Regulatory pressure will only increase, but on-chain prediction markets will not disappear; they will only change form.

The most likely compliant approach is a separation of "legal entity + decentralized protocol." The front-end company handles compliance, while the back-end protocol remains tamper-proof and censorship-resistant. Alternatively, fully embracing a "non-U.S. user priority" strategy, using technical means to isolate U.S. regulation.

My judgment as an old hand is: traditional financial institutions and regulators fear not the prediction markets themselves, but that they allow ordinary people to directly participate in pricing major events. The more they suppress, the faster innovation accelerates. The platforms most likely to survive are not the most compliant, but those that can adapt to gray areas while providing real informational value. Regulation can never keep up with code; code will only become smarter. $BTC