BTC long-term holding circulation ratio surges to 75%! Analyst Murphy: The bear market may be bottoming out

On-Chain Analyst Murphy Posts: As of June 17, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH) net positions surged to 14.96 million BTC, about 20k more than the previous high recorded on March 27. This is the second time since the bear market began that net holdings have hit a new record, with 75% of the circulating supply now held by long-term investors.
(Background: K33 Research: Bitcoin Long-Term Holders Reach 79%, Hitting a New High! Exhausted Selling Pressure Suggests Market Bottoming)
(Additional context: CryptoQuant Warns of Coming Bear Market: Bitcoin Holding Structure Breaking Down, Whales Retreating, Buyers Reducing Positions Significantly)

Table of Contents

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• Initial holdings rebound
• Three peaks in the previous cycle, corresponding to three waves of distribution
• Bottom viewed as exhausted selling pressure

Key Summary

• As of June 17, Bitcoin LTH net holdings reached 14.96 million BTC, about 20k more than the high on March 27
• Long-term holders control 75% of the circulating supply, a second-high in the bear market
• During the last bear cycle, LTH hit three peaks, each linked to rate hike expectations, Luna collapse, and FTX bankruptcy

On-chain analyst Murphy’s latest post refocuses market attention on the coin distribution structure on the blockchain. According to his data, as of June 17, Bitcoin long-term holders (LTH, generally addresses holding coins for over 155 days and not frequently trading) net holdings have reached 20k BTC, about 20k more than the previous high on March 27. This marks the second time net holdings have hit a new record since the current bear market began.

Murphy points out that more and more BTC are no longer willing to participate in short-term trading and quick turnover. Currently, 75% of the circulating supply is locked in the hands of long-term holders. The shift from floating short-term traders to immovable long-term investors is not new in each cycle; what’s truly worth analyzing is the timing behind this trend.

Long-term holders (LTH) net positions hit a new all-time high!

As of June 17, LTH net holdings reached 14.96 million BTC, surpassing the previous high set on March 27 by about 20,000 BTC. This is the second time since Bitcoin entered the bear market that LTH net holdings have reached a new peak.

It clearly indicates that more and more BTC are no longer willing to engage in short-term speculation and trading, with 75% of the total circulating supply now held by LTHs. … https://t.co/0BFr0ieajJ pic.twitter.com/DX99XUXFRC

— Murphy (@Murphychen888) June 19, 2026

Initial holdings rebound

Murphy mentions a historical pattern: the bottom of each bear market usually occurs after LTH net holdings start to rebound. The sequence is “holdings rebound” first, then “bottom formation,” not the other way around.

In plain terms, when long-term investors quietly start consolidating coins into cold wallets and the net holdings curve stops falling and begins to rise, it often coincides with the most pessimistic market sentiment. The actual price bottom tends to form after this. That’s why an all-time high in LTH net holdings is often interpreted by on-chain analysts as a “bottoming signal,” rather than a warning of a top.

Three peaks in the previous cycle, corresponding to three waves of distribution

However, hitting a new high doesn’t automatically mean the bottom is in. Murphy shifts focus to the previous cycle: during that period, LTH net holdings hit three new highs, each corresponding to a strong “distribution,” meaning long-term holders reversed their positions back to the market.

These three distribution waves occurred during key moments: when the Fed announced rate hike expectations, Luna’s collapse, and FTX’s bankruptcy—almost during the most intense panic phases. The current cycle has only reached the second new high. Even with net holdings hitting a new peak, the context of selling pressure can change its significance dramatically.

Viewing the bottom as exhausted selling pressure

So, how to judge? Murphy suggests it’s not about which number peak it is, but whether the scale of each previous “distribution” has shown a clear decreasing trend.

The logic is straightforward: if this wave’s distribution is smaller than the last, it indicates fewer long-term investors are willing to sell at high prices, and selling pressure is gradually being exhausted.

The key isn’t which peak number it is, but whether the scale of previous LTH distributions has shown a clear downward trend. If this distribution is smaller than the last, it suggests selling pressure is waning, and the true bear market bottom may have already formed or is near.

Looking at this framework, the bottom isn’t determined by counting peaks, but by observing how much selling pressure remains.

This is not investment advice.

Frequently Asked Questions

What does a new high in Bitcoin long-term holder net positions indicate?

It means more BTC are being held by long-term investors (over 155 days), locking in their coins and exiting short-term trading. As of June 17, this reached 14.96 million BTC, accounting for 75% of the circulating supply. Historically, bear market bottoms often occur after LTH net holdings rebound, which Murphy considers a “bottoming signal.”

How does Murphy determine if Bitcoin’s bear market bottom has arrived?

Murphy believes the key isn’t which peak number in LTH net holdings, but whether the “distribution” scale before each rebound has been decreasing wave by wave. If this wave’s distribution is smaller than the last, it indicates selling pressure is waning, and the true bottom may have already appeared or is close.