Analysis: BTC long-term holders' net position hits a new all-time high, and the bear market bottom may not be far away.

Mars Finance News: On June 19, on-chain analyst Murphy said in a post that long-term holders (LTH) net positions have reached a new all-time high. As of June 17, the LTH net position amounted to 14.96 million BTC, which is 20,000 more than the peak formed on March 27. This marks the second time since BTC entered the bear market that LTH net positions have set a new high.

An increasing number of BTC are no longer willing to participate in short-term speculation and trading. The chips accounting for 75% of the total circulating supply are held by LTH. He believes that historically, the bottom of each bear market cycle usually appears after LTH net positions begin to rebound—first there is “position recovery,” and then “bottom formation.”

In the last cycle, LTH net positions saw three new all-time highs, each corresponding to three rounds of strong distribution. These occurred during the periods when the Federal Reserve released expectations of rate hikes, when Luna experienced a crash, and when FTX collapsed. This cycle is currently the second time it has reached a new all-time high. He believes the key is not which time it hits a new high, but whether the distribution scale prior to this shows a clear stepwise downward trend. If the distribution scale in this round is lower than the last time, it indicates that selling pressure is gradually drying up, and the true bear market bottom may have already formed or may be not far off.