Daily Cryptocurrency Analysis: Bitcoin (BTC)

Market Performance and Analysis:

According to the latest data as of June 19, 2026, following the first FOMC decision by newly appointed Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh (the policy rate was maintained at 3.50%–3.75%, and the dot plot appeared slightly hawkish), the market has gradually digested expectations for interest rates for the second half of the year. With major geopolitical positive developments coming to fruition, the price of crypto has stabilized and rebounded.

Price Dynamics: Currently, it is trading strongly around $65,600 (approximately 1,987,000 TWD). After the fluctuations, market risk-averse sentiment has been repaired, and price has successfully been lifted step by step from the prior low.

Technical Outlook: In the short term, extremely strong structural support has been confirmed in the $63,000–$64,000 range. If bullish momentum can be sustained and it can successfully hold above $66,000, the overhead resistance levels will point directly to the $67,000 and $68,500 levels. At present, the market’s Fear and Greed Index is 22. It is still in the “extreme fear” state, but it has rebounded significantly from last week’s single-digit trough (9), suggesting that a market bottom is gradually taking shape.

Major Positive Developments and Macro Effects:

U.S.-Iran Peace Agreement Officially Signed Today: The highly anticipated U.S.-Iran peace agreement was officially signed today (June 19) in Switzerland. This marks the formal end of the most significant geopolitical risk in 2026. With Brent crude oil falling back to $75 per barrel, the easing of inflation pressure reduces the urgency for the Federal Reserve to pursue additional rate hikes, injecting a shot of confidence into risk assets such as the crypto market.

Smart Money Massively Accumulates: According to CoinDesk and on-chain data, during June’s major market pullback, long-term holders (addresses holding for more than 155 days) aggressively absorbed as many as 125,000 BTC. Currently, the total supply held by long-term holders is nearing the historical high of 16.30 million BTC. Token lock-up conditions are excellent, and the portion of retail panic selling has been fully taken over in a systematic way by institutions and the “smart money” of large whales.

Disclaimer: For reference only; not investment advice.

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