$ETH Recent Gold Market Review

Earlier, gold surged to a historic high of $5,000, with silver simultaneously rising above $75, marking a sustained bull market;
In June, the trend abruptly shifted, leading to high-level wide-range oscillations and large fluctuations:

1. Spot Gold: The rally to 4,350 faced resistance and pulled back, with a low of $4,020 as support, fluctuating over a $300 range, with weak rebounds and supported declines, neither rising nor falling significantly; domestically, Shanghai Gold also fluctuated between 930-970 yuan.

2. Spot Silver: Volatility far exceeds gold, with strong elasticity, facing resistance near 70, dropping to as low as $61.4, with daily fluctuations of 3%-5%, alternating between sharp rises and falls, showing more extreme trends.
Overall summary: The previous one-sided bullish trend has completely ended, now entering a high-level consolidation and shakeout phase, with repeated tug-of-war between bulls and bears, making chasing orders very risky.

II. Four core reasons behind the current tug-of-war in gold and silver markets

1. The most core suppression: The Federal Reserve has fully turned hawkish, with rate cut expectations completely dashed (mainly bearish)

The latest June policy meeting clearly maintained high interest rates, removing all easing guidance, with nearly half of officials indicating further rate hikes within 2026; US CPI and non-farm payroll data continue to outperform expectations, with inflation remaining high.
Gold and silver are non-yield assets; US bond yields and the dollar are strengthening simultaneously, greatly increasing holding costs for gold and silver. Institutions have been reducing ETF holdings at high levels, with each rally met with profit-taking pressure, firmly capping upside potential.

2. Strong bottom support: Global central banks continue to accumulate gold, geopolitical risks repeatedly support the floor (bullish bottom line)

While some institutions are short-term selling, many countries’ central banks are steadily increasing gold holdings; China’s central bank has been adding to reserves for consecutive months. De-dollarization of reserves will not disappear in the short term;
Although the Middle East and US-Iran tensions have eased temporarily, regional uncertainties remain. If conflicts reignite, safe-haven funds will rush in to buy the dip, and large declines will be met with buying support, making deep crashes unlikely and the bottom support firm.

3. Silver’s unique divergence: Amplified volatility due to dual attributes

Gold mainly reacts to financial hedging and interest rate logic; silver has both financial and industrial attributes:
Negative factors: High interest rates suppress speculative funds, and weak economic expectations dampen industrial demand;
Positive factors: Photovoltaics, new energy vehicles, and chip cooling continuously consume silver, with long-term supply-demand gaps.
These two opposing forces cause silver’s price swings to far exceed gold’s, with larger oscillations and more intense shakeouts.

4. Market capital stock game, lacking new bullish funds

In the first half of the year, funds flowed heavily into US stocks, AI, crypto markets, and fixed-income investments, significantly reducing new capital entering precious metals; only short-term speculative funds remain, rotating within the market, unable to break key resistance levels, maintaining a range-bound oscillation.

III. Complete market outlook after cycle analysis (key insights)

Short-term (1-4 weeks, current consolidation phase): Weak oscillation, rebounds face resistance

1. Gold range: $4,000–$4,350 in international markets, 900–960 yuan/gram domestically; the strong resistance at around $4,330 is difficult to break in one go, with each rebound likely to face resistance and pull back. The key support at $4,000 must hold; if not, the range will persist.

2. Silver range: $61.5–$70 with wide fluctuations, highly volatile; heavy selling pressure near 68-70, with bottom-fishing support around 62.

3. Short-term trend conclusion: As long as the hawkish expectations of the Federal Reserve remain unchanged, the overall trend remains weak. Do not chase big gains; with small positions for dips, avoid heavy bets on one-sided moves.

Mid-term (Q3, 3 months): Continual consolidation at low levels, unlikely to see a big rally

In Q3, US inflation and energy prices are prone to fluctuations; the Fed will likely maintain high interest rates, with no macro conditions favoring gold and silver;
The market is likely to oscillate in a W-shape, repeatedly testing support levels, without quickly restarting a bull market. Only if inflation data sharply cools and market rate cut expectations reignite will a mid-term rebound open up.

Long-term (Q4 to next year): The foundation of a major bull market remains intact; deep declines are opportunities for long-term positioning

Three key reasons support the long-term bullish trend:

1. Continued de-dollarization globally, with central banks long-term buying gold, forming a permanent support base;

2. The US’s massive fiscal deficits and long-term weakening of dollar credit ensure gold’s value preservation;

3. Silver’s increasing demand from new energy and industrial sectors, with ongoing supply-demand gaps, will eventually restore the gold-silver ratio, with silver having higher upside potential than gold in the long run.
Long-term view: As long as key long-term supports are not effectively broken, this gold and silver bull market is not over. Mid-term consolidation is just a shakeout, and deep corrections are opportunities for long-term allocation.

IV. Practical trading suggestions (for live room followers)

1. Short-term futures/position trading: Do not chase highs or sell lows in range-bound markets; reduce positions at resistance levels to short, and buy small positions at support, strictly using stop-loss orders, lowering risk from silver’s large volatility.

2. Spot and paper gold/silver holdings: Do not panic-sell at support; avoid blindly increasing positions on rebounds, wait for deep corrections to add gradually.

3. Long-term positioning: Wait for Q3’s full adjustment, and when prices fall to the lower end of the range, allocate long-term in batches. Avoid frequent short-term trading.

4. Key reversal signals (signs of breaking out of consolidation):
① US CPI and employment data continue to cool significantly;
② The Fed signals rate cuts, with the dot plot lowering rate hike expectations;
③ Gold volume stabilizes above $4,350, silver breaks through $70 and remains steady.
When any two of these three signals appear, the consolidation phase ends, and the bull trend resumes.