The US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding has been signed electronically.

The memorandum was signed, and $BTC immediately plummeted; I’m stunned.

That last wave really threw me off.

Clearly, the day before yesterday, there were rumors of Middle East tensions heating up, everyone was calling for safe-haven buying of $BTC, but as soon as the US-Iran memorandum was signed, the market turned downward.

$BTC dropped from a high, now at 63,510, down nearly three percent.

I checked the order flow; during that drop, there was concentrated volume on the short side, and the long stop-loss orders were swept clean.

Someone in the group just now was shouting “Middle East situation is bullish for $BTC,” now it’s dead silent as if everyone’s gone.

With this kind of news, you really can’t position in advance.

You think it’s good news, but it turns out to be bad when it lands.

You think it’s bad news, but after negotiations, it reverses.

The market always moves faster than you; by the time you see the news and open a position, the liquidation zone has already shifted.

I currently have no positions, just staring at this line in a daze.

At 63,500, this level was support before, now it’s turned into resistance.

If it doesn’t recover tonight, the bulls’ position cost line for this week will basically be broken.

I haven’t seen any abnormal funding rates for now, but the sentiment has already loosened, retail traders are fleeing.

This wave gives me the feeling that:

Geopolitical news, traders in futures can’t really profit from it.

You’re betting on the direction, they’re betting on the negotiation table.

Before the news lands, you don’t dare to hold heavy positions; after it lands, you can’t chase in, and if you do, you’re just taking the bag.

The memorandum is signed, geopolitical risks ease, and the expectation of capital flowing back into traditional assets has instead put downward pressure on $BTC.

In the short term, the safe-haven premium is being drained, liquidity will flow from $BTC toward US Treasuries and safe-haven currencies, and altcoins are likely to shrink in volume and oscillate sideways.

Once the market re-prices this layer, we’ll see the real direction.

Do you think 63,500 can hold tonight?
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