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Bitcoin overall shows a volatile downward trend, starting to decline from the high point around 64,768 early this morning. During the oscillation process, it repeatedly lost support from multiple short-term moving averages, with the lowest dip reaching the 62,715 area. The current price stabilizes around 62,893 in a weak consolidation. Ethereum's movement is highly correlated with Bitcoin, simultaneously starting a downtrend from the high of 1,745, dropping to the low near 1,672, maintaining a weak follow-through decline throughout. The market's characteristic of synchronized downward movement is very prominent, with Ethereum's short-term selling pressure releasing more violently compared to Bitcoin.
On the daily chart, the downward channel continues to expand and diverge. After experiencing a slight rebound and completing a trap for buy-in and distribution, the market has fully shifted to a stair-step oscillating decline. Bearish momentum continues to steadily release, with EMA15, EMA30, and EMA60 forming a synchronized downward resonance suppression pattern. Prices remain under long-term pressure from all short-term moving averages, and the Bollinger Bands are widening downward. This technical pattern indicates the trend has clearly shifted to a bearish dominance, with the current decline having sufficient continuation potential and solid structural support. The four-hour chart continues to show a weak downward trend, with rebounds consistently constrained by the middle Bollinger Band and short-term moving averages. The rebound highs keep moving lower, forming a typical stair-step decline pattern, further reinforcing the daily bearish trend. The current market rhythm shows that bearish selling pressure is still accumulating, and the small short-term rebounds are not signs of a trend reversal but rather typical retracement moves during a decline, mainly to gather selling pressure above for the next deep drop. Market sentiment is weakening simultaneously, with the cryptocurrency fear and greed index falling to 15, entering an extreme fear zone. The spot Bitcoin ETF has experienced continuous net outflows for several days, with institutional funds withdrawing further intensifying selling pressure. Multiple technical indicators confirm the bearish pattern: the daily MACD fast and slow lines remain below zero, with the green bearish momentum bars slightly converging but no golden cross reversal signals. The RSI briefly entered oversold territory and then rebounded slightly, indicating short-term correction needs but not changing the larger bearish structure. The four-hour MACD has formed a death cross again, with the green bars expanding, restarting short-term downward momentum. Tonight’s Federal Reserve policy expectations are likely to continue suppressing risk assets. The key support zones at 60,000 to 60,500 are the last defensive line for bulls; once broken, the downside space will open fully. Today's intraday trading strategy remains focused on short positions during rebounds, with a core approach of selling into resistance.
Specific trading suggestions: Pay attention to the resistance at 64,300-64,800 and 65,300-66,000 zones. If these levels hold without breaking, consider attempting high short positions, targeting a downward move of 5,000 to 6,000 points.