BLUR's open interest surged by 54%, the price dropped nearly 13%, and large on-chain transfers are happening simultaneously—smart money and retail investors are completely on opposite sides this time.

I’ve always regarded open interest as a thermometer of market sentiment. A sharp increase usually indicates both bulls and bears are increasing their bets, with disagreements so large that leverage is almost being torn apart.

But the price is dropping instead, is someone absorbing the supply while pushing down the price, or are the bulls really taking hits head-on?

I checked the on-chain data, and large transfers are indeed frequent, with address activity resembling organized accumulation. But I dare not follow.

This combination of a sudden surge in open interest coupled with falling prices has occurred a few times in history, ultimately either resulting in a violent rebound that blows up the shorts or a liquidation cascade that takes out the longs. Betting on either side feels uncomfortable.

My gut tells me that after an abnormal increase in open interest, the market usually chooses a direction within 24 hours. The price is still in a weak zone; if there’s no volume breakout to stabilize it later, this surge in open interest might just be a bull trap.
But if a sudden volume-driven bullish candle appears to recover the decline, then the previous sell-off was just a shakeout.

At this point, I choose to stay on the sidelines—no chasing shorts, no bottom-fishing. Keep your positions steady, don’t chase after every spike, and accept losses if broken.

The Federal Reserve just finished a meeting; Powell kept rates unchanged but removed the language about “further adjustments,” and said they will abandon forward guidance, letting the market itself assess the economic conditions for pricing. This tough stance is essentially forcing the market to digest volatility on its own, removing buffers.

For the crypto space, liquidity expectations will tighten, and funds will focus more on assets with strong fundamentals. Purely sentiment-driven tokens are more likely to be wiped out in a liquidation wave. #我的Gate交易时刻 #TradFiCFD黄金大师赛 #STRC跌破面值11%创上市新低