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The yen has updated its low since July 2024…
➠ USD/JPY is above 161. The risk of currency interventions is returning.
Today, the Japanese government said it is ready to respond to sharp moves in the currency market “at any time”.
➠ The U.S. dollar strengthened after the Federal Reserve meeting, and the gap between U.S. and Japan interest rates remains large even after the Bank of Japan raised its rate to 1%.
➠ If Japan starts supporting the yen, it could strengthen sharply, which increases the likelihood of closing “carry trade” positions—when investors borrow cheap yen and buy risk assets.
➠ USD/JPY above 161 is a potential trigger to move away from risk if the market expects a new intervention by Japan.