BTC Market Complete Analysis + Future Trend Forecast

Analysis Time: 2026.06.18 01:49
Current Price: 62,632.2 USDT

I. Market Situation Review

1. Short-term 1 hour: Single-day plunge of 4.84%, quickly broke below the daily middle band at 65,093, touched intra-day low of 62,268, MACD continues downward with increasing bearish volume, short-term selling pressure not fully released;
2. 4-hour cycle: Continues downward along the lower Bollinger band, bullish moving averages turn downward, 67,300 forms strong resistance, rebound is weak;
3. Daily cycle: Broke below the Bollinger middle band, bullish trend temporarily broken, with dense trap zones at 67,500 and 72,500 above;
4. Weekly/Monthly: Top formation at high levels, medium to long-term oscillation downward channel opens, this round is a deep correction after the bull market ends.

II. Key Support and Resistance

Support

1. Short-term first support: 62,268 (intra-day low, today’s bull-bear dividing line)
2. Mid-term strong support: 59,129 (the bottom of this round’s rally, core defense zone during correction, a break below will trigger deeper decline)

Resistance

1. Short-term resistance: 65,000 (daily Bollinger middle band, first resistance on rebound)
2. Mid-term strong resistance: 67,500–68,000, concentrated trap zone, difficult to break through in one attempt during rebound

III. Cycle-based Trend Forecast + Probabilities

Short-term (1–3 trading days)

1. Path A (65% probability): Support at 62,268 holds, weak range-bound correction between 62,300–65,000, rebound near 64,800 faces resistance and pulls back;
2. Path B (35% probability): Volume increases and breaks support at 62,268, directly tests the key mid-term support at 59,129, short-term bullish momentum weakens thoroughly.

Mid-term (1–4 weeks)

1. Path ① Range consolidation and bottoming (60% probability): 59,129 holds as a solid bottom, overall range between 59,000–68,000 to digest high-level trapped positions, repeatedly shaking out traders;
2. Path ② Deep decline and weakening (40% probability): Valid physical break below 59,129, opening a new downward space, next target zone 56,000–57,000.

Long-term (monthly level)

1. Path 1 (70% probability): Weekly top established, long-term maintains 56,000–70,000 range oscillation to build a bottom, unable to quickly return to the 126,000 all-time high, waiting for sufficient chip exchange before brewing the next big move;
2. Path 2 (30% probability): Global liquidity loosens significantly combined with influx of crypto incremental funds, breaking through 70,000 to challenge previous highs again, a low-probability bullish scenario.

IV. Practical Trading Strategy

1. Holding traders: Partially reduce positions at 64,800–65,000 during rebound, lower overall position to avoid ongoing correction risk;
2. Wait-and-see with no position: Do not rush to buy the dip, wait for stabilization near 59,129 before lightly trying long positions; in the short term, only a very small position to gamble on 62,300 support rebound, with stop-loss below 62,200;
3. Risk control reminder: Currently dominated by bears, strictly prohibit heavy long positions on dips or high-leverage futures, avoid deep retracements caused by sharp pullbacks.

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