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Uncertainty Ahead of the US - Iran Meeting Triggers Oil Market Direction Worries
Crude Oil Focus:
The IEA cuts its 2026 global oil demand forecast and warns of a large supply surplus in 2027.
A ceasefire agreement has been signed by the US President and Iran, and the Strait of Hormuz will soon be reopened, Pakistan’s PM says.
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Thursday, June 18, 2026 — Oil prices this morning are seen moving bearish, weighed down by post-release sentiment after the pessimistic IEA projections, and the signing of a ceasefire agreement by the US President and Iran. Nevertheless, Trump’s renewed threats have triggered doubts about an official US–Iran meeting in Switzerland this Friday, which has become a positive catalyst supporting prices.
In the June Oil Market Report released Wednesday, the EIA once again trimmed its forecast for global oil demand in 2026, down by 1.1 million bpd, or 700,000 bpd lower than the previous estimate. This weaker outlook comes as the IEA believes the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows from the Persian Gulf. The IEA also warns that global oil supply could rise by about 8 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd in 2027, as production recovers in the Middle East’s eastern region and OPEC+ raises production targets.
Also weighing on prices, the ceasefire agreement document was signed on Wednesday night by both US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to an official statement from the White House. As a first step, Tehran will soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US will immediately lift its naval blockade, says Pakistan Prime Minister Shebhaz Sharif, who helped mediate talks between the two sides.
However, Trump said the agreement that has been signed is not final, and the US could attack Iran again if it does not like the final deal to be signed in Switzerland on Friday—details of which have not been released. Trump also reiterated that the US is not investing in Iran, following earlier reports that the US is prepared to allow investment funds for Iran in exchange for Tehran’s agreement to a final settlement.
Meanwhile, a report released Wednesday night by the EIA shows US crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels in the week ending June 12, exceeding the initial expectation that stocks would decline by 4.6 million barrels. The drop also marks the largest since February. Gasoline stocks were also reported to have fallen by 906,000 barrels. The EIA report indicates strong demand in the US oil market.
From a technical perspective, oil prices could meet nearby resistance at the $77 per barrel level. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could fall to the nearest support at $72 per barrel.