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Doubts Ahead of US - Iran Meeting Spark Oil Market Uncertainty
Focus on Crude Oil:
IEA cuts global oil demand forecast for 2026 and warns of a large supply surplus in 2027.
A ceasefire agreement has been signed by the US President and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will soon be reopened, says Pakistan's PM.
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Thursday, June 18, 2026 - Oil prices this morning are observed to move bearish, weighed down by sentiment following the release of the pessimistic IEA forecast, and the signing of the ceasefire agreement by the US President and Iran. However, Trump’s threats again trigger doubts about an official US - Iran meeting in Switzerland this Friday, which remains a positive catalyst supporting prices.
In the June Oil Market Report released Wednesday, EIA again lowered its global oil demand forecast for 2026, down by 1.1 million bpd, or 700,000 bpd from the previous estimate. This weaker projection arises because IEA assesses that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows from the Persian Gulf. IEA also warns that global oil supply could increase by about 8 million bpd to 110.3 million bpd in 2027, as Middle East production recovers and OPEC+ production targets increase.
Adding to the downward pressure, the ceasefire agreement document was signed on Wednesday night by both US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to an official statement from the White House. As a first step, Tehran will soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and the US will immediately lift the naval blockade, said Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who helped mediate talks between the two sides.
Nevertheless, Trump stated that the signed agreement is not final, and the US may attack Iran again if it does not like the final deal to be signed in Switzerland on Friday — details of which have not been released. Trump also emphasized that the US is not investing in Iran, following earlier reports that the US is ready to allow investment funds for Iran in exchange for Tehran’s approval of a final settlement.
Meanwhile, a report released Wednesday night by EIA shows US crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels for the week ending June 12, exceeding initial expectations of a 4.6 million barrel decline. This decrease also marks the largest since February. Gasoline stocks were also reported to have fallen by 906,000 barrels. The EIA report indicates strong demand in the US oil market.
From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter near resistance at the $77 per barrel level. However, if negative catalysts appear, prices could fall to the nearest support at $72 per barrel.