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Doubts Ahead of US - Iran Meeting Spark Oil Market Uncertainty
Crude Oil Focus:
IEA cuts global oil demand forecast for 2026 and warns of a large supply surplus in 2027.
A ceasefire agreement has been signed by the US President and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will soon be reopened, says Pakistan’s PM.
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Thursday, June 18, 2026 - Oil prices this morning are observed to move bearish, weighed down by sentiment following the release of the pessimistic IEA projection and the signing of the ceasefire agreement by the US President and Iran. Even so, Trump’s renewed threats have again become a catalyst that supports prices by triggering doubts about an official US - Iran meeting in Switzerland this Friday.
In the June Oil Market Report released on Wednesday, the EIA once again cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2026, down by 1.1 million bph, or down by 700,000 bph from the previous estimate. This weaker projection comes as the IEA assesses that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows from the Persian Gulf. The IEA also warns that global oil supply could increase by about 8 million bph to 110.3 million bph in 2027, as production in the Eastern Middle East region recovers and OPEC+ increases production targets.
Also weighing on prices, the ceasefire agreement document has been signed on Wednesday night by both US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to an official statement from the White House. As a first step, Tehran will soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US will immediately lift the naval blockade, said Pakistan Prime Minister Shebhaz Sharif, who helped mediate talks between the two sides.
Even so, Trump said the signed agreement is not final, and the US could attack Iran again if it does not like the final deal to be signed in Switzerland on Friday — details of which have not yet been released. Trump also reiterated that the US is not investing in Iran, following earlier reports that the US is prepared to allow investment funds for Iran in exchange for Tehran’s approval of the final settlement.
Meanwhile, a report released Wednesday night by the EIA showed US crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels in the week ending June 12, exceeding initial expectations that stocks would fall by 4.6 million barrels. The decline also marks the largest drop since February. It was also reported that gasoline stocks fell by 906,000 barrels. The EIA report indicates strong demand in the US oil market.
From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter the nearest resistance position at the $77 per barrel level. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could potentially fall to the nearest support level at $72 per barrel.