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The biggest difference between prediction markets and betting platforms is that the former is process-oriented, while the latter is result-oriented.
Betting platforms involve you competing against the house, whereas prediction markets are a game between users.
The price displayed in prediction markets represents the market's perceived probability of an event occurring, while on betting platforms, it is simply the odds offered by the bookmaker.
In most cases, prediction markets allow you to sell your positions at any time, whereas some betting platforms only settle after the result is known.
This is also why I encourage everyone to trade in prediction markets—buy low and sell high or hold until settlement feels more like trading stocks or contracts, whereas traditional betting means the house controls the odds to make a profit.
Although fundamentally both are gambling, the order book in prediction markets allows for trading throughout the process, which means lower risk and greater flexibility.
Prediction market:
"The French team wins" price is $0.65, meaning the market estimates about a 65% chance of France winning.
If you buy 100 shares at $0.65 each, it costs $65; if France wins, each share settles at $1, and you get back $100.
If the price rises to $0.80 midway, you can also sell early for profit.
Betting platform:
France win odds are 1.54, so if you bet 100 yuan and France wins, you get back 154 yuan; if you lose, it’s zero.
The core is just winning the bet.
Wishing everyone a positive EV at the end of the World Cup—bet and let it go, accept the outcome.