$BTC Breaking News | Powell's First Meeting as Chair Brings Major Changes to the FOMC, The Federal Reserve Officially Bids Farewell to the Forward Guidance Era

On June 18, Beijing time, new Federal Reserve Chair Powell presided over his first policy meeting, maintaining the federal funds rate at 3.50%-3.75%, in line with market expectations. The biggest change this time completely rewrites the Fed's communication framework:
1. The policy statement is significantly streamlined, with all forward guidance language removed, no longer providing any bias toward rate hikes or cuts, and no longer pre-committing to a policy path;
2. Powell explicitly stated at the press conference: current inflation fluctuations and geopolitical risks are complex, fixed forward guidance would constrain policy flexibility, and future central bank statements will objectively describe the economic situation without forecasting subsequent rate moves;
3. Simultaneously, the Fed launched institutional reforms, establishing five special working groups to comprehensively assess the continued relevance of tools like the dot plot and quarterly economic forecasts;
4. The dot plot showed intense disagreement this time, with half of the officials expecting rate hikes within 2026, and the median rate forecast being raised, signaling a hawkish stance that pushed up U.S. Treasury yields and the dollar, while U.S. stocks and gold came under pressure;
5. The market logic has completely shifted: past trading based on Fed language guidance, now purely relying on data such as CPI and non-farm payrolls for pricing, with global asset volatility continuing to rise;
Institutional interpretation: This reform marks a return to Greenspan-style ambiguous communication. The phased discontinuation of forward guidance is only likely to restart if there is a significant economic recession or rapid inflation decline, signaling a paradigm shift in interest rate trading logic.