#美伊谅解备忘录已完成电子签署



After the Iran-U.S. memorandum is implemented, the market should be most wary of not the "peace dividend," but the backlash caused by "false peace."

If the 30-day解除封锁 (lifting of restrictions) is truly fulfilled, short-term oil prices may face pressure, and risk assets including Bitcoin could benefit temporarily. But I am more concerned that if the 60-day negotiation period stalls, oil prices could rise even more sharply than before, because the previously suppressed demand will be released all at once. **My approach is**: The impact of such geopolitical events on cryptocurrencies is never linear, but transmitted through two channels: "risk appetite + US dollar liquidity." When the agreement progresses smoothly, BTC may follow the strength of US stocks; when negotiations break down, BTC might instead temporarily resist declines due to "de-risking" demand. Experienced traders split their positions into two parts: one for event-driven trading, and the other to hold Bitcoin as a hedge against geopolitical black swan events.
BTC-4.40%
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