#美伊谅解备忘录已完成电子签署

Electronic signature for the memorandum is just the first step; Iran directly sets a 30-day condition to lift sanctions, followed by a 60-day nuclear negotiation. This timetable appears orderly on the surface but is actually filled with political calculations.

I judge that the probability of changes occurring during the 60-day nuclear negotiation period is significantly higher. The 30-day sanction lift is more of Iran's bargaining chip; the actual implementation will get stuck on technical details, verification mechanisms, and domestic political resistance in the United States.

During the 60-day negotiation window, Israel's stance, the actual progress of Iran's nuclear facilities, and any hardline voices within either country's domestic politics could instantly tear the agreement apart. History has repeatedly shown that the most fragile part of the US-Iran deal is never the signing moment but the subsequent implementation and verification phases.

Oil prices are likely to fluctuate repeatedly over these two months, and the crypto market will also swing with emotional rollercoasters. $BTC