#黄金早报 2026-06-18

📊 Core Data
Table
Indicator Value
Spot Gold $4,308/oz
24h Change +0.66% (Rebound after last night's FOMC plunge)
7d Change +7.1% (Rebound from 6/11 low of $4,024)
Recent High $4,382 (Intraday high before 6/17 FOMC)
Retracement -1.7% (From recent high)
Domestic AU9999 938 yuan/gram
US Dollar Index 100.38
🌙 Last night’s major event: FOMC Waller’s debut—hawkish surprise
1. Interest rate decision: Maintain 3.50%-3.75%, unanimous vote 12:0
As expected, but statement wording changed dramatically: from 341 words down to 130 words, removing all forward guidance and easing bias, only ending with "will achieve price stability." China Securities Journal
2. Dot plot: Officials expect rate hikes this year on 9/18
9 members expect at least one rate hike (3 with +25bp, 5 with +50bp, 1 with +75bp)
8 expect no change, only 1 expects a cut
Year-end median rate rises from 3.4% to 3.8% → implying one 25bp hike
Waller did not submit a dot plot forecast, First Financial
3. Inflation forecast significantly revised upward
PCE: 2.7% → 3.6% (+0.9ppt)
Core PCE: 2.7% → 3.3% (+0.6ppt)
GDP growth: 2.4% → 2.2% (downward revision)
Unemployment rate: 4.4% → 4.3% (downward revision) Oriental Wealth
4. Waller’s key signals at the press conference
Abandoned forward guidance: "No longer suitable for current policy environment"
Inflation stance: Strongly hawkish, mentioning "price stability" over ten times, stating "inflation is a choice"
Judging policy restrictiveness as "imbalanced": housing tight, financial conditions loose → implying rates are not tight enough
Announced five special working groups: reviewing communication, balance sheet reduction, inflation framework, etc. GF Macro
5. Market immediate reaction
Spot gold plummeted from $4,382 to $4,219 (down over $150), closing at $4,257 (-1.7%)
US Dollar Index surged nearly 100 points to 100.38
2-year US Treasury yield +15BP to 4.2%
US stocks sharply declined: Nasdaq -1.34%, S&P -1.21% Daily Economic News
6. Asian session rebound
Today’s Asia-Pacific trading saw strong buying, gold sharply V-shaped rebounding back to $4,305-4,330, recovering most of the decline.
📈 Resistance and Support
Table
Level Price Basis
Strong Resistance $4,400 Psychological level + pre-FOMC high area
Resistance $4,350 First target for short-term rebound
Current $4,308 —
Support $4,250 Post-FOMC closing price area
Strong Support $4,200 Key integer level
Very Strong Support $4,000 Psychological bottom + 6/11 low of $4,023
🎯 Strategy
Short-term (1-2 weeks): Wide-range oscillation, hawkish digestion period
After hawkish shock from FOMC, market enters 2-4 week sentiment digestion, volatility significantly increases
CME pricing: July rate hike probability 32%, September 49%, December 78%, but actual hike probability is lower
Institutions like Huachuang and Orient Securities believe: US-Iran agreement signed → oil prices fall → inflation pressure eases → likely no rate change this year
Core contradiction: hawkish dot plot vs Waller not submitting forecast + White House pressure to cut rates → convergence towards chair’s stance
Two scenarios:
📉 Hawkish path: If CPI remains above 4% and non-farm continues to surprise → rate hike expectations rise → gold tests $4,200-$4,000
📈 Dovish path: If energy prices continue to fall, employment weakens marginally → rate hike expectations fade → gold rebounds to $4,350-$4,400
Operational advice:
Avoid frequent short-term trades, buy low and sell high in the $4,200-$4,400 range
Below $4,200 can be accumulated in batches, $4,000 as the ultimate stop-loss
Mid-to-long term: Central bank gold purchases + de-dollarization trend unchanged, each correction is a window for allocation
⏰ Key time points
Table
Time Event Impact level
6/18 19:00 Bank of England rate decision ⭐⭐
6/18 20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims ⭐⭐⭐
6/18 22:00 US May Conference Board Leading Indicators ⭐⭐
6/19 US-Iran agreement officially signed ⭐⭐⭐⭐
Early July US June Non-Farm Payrolls ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
July 29-30 Next FOMC meeting ⭐⭐⭐⭐⭐
💡 Core judgment
Waller’s debut more hawkish than expected, but hawkishness is in the dot plot rather than Waller himself (he didn’t even submit a forecast) #沃什首秀美联储利率不变
Forward guidance abolished, market loses "anchor" → volatility will continue to increase until markets relearn pure data-driven pricing
Hike expectations more paper tiger: US-Iran deal implementation + oil prices below $80 → inflation peaks → actual rate hikes far below the 50% implied by the dot plot
Gold pricing logic shifts: geopolitical safe haven has exited, pure rate-based approach → real interest rate is the core variable
**$4,200 is the short-term bottom**, if broken, then $4,000 is in sight; the medium-to-long-term bottom is supported by central bank gold purchases, unlikely to fall sharply