#沃什首次FOMC维持利率，放弃前瞻指引

Abandoning forward guidance essentially means the Federal Reserve is admitting it has created too much moral hazard in the past. Now that the market has to price itself, it removes the "illusion of certainty."

As an experienced trader, my current practical logic is: downgrade the Federal Reserve from a "decision variable" to a "reference variable." The core model is now anchored to actual economic data, supplemented by real-time changes in interest rate futures and options volatility curves. In the short term, I prefer to adopt a "wait-and-see approach before data release + opportunistic moves after data exceeds expectations," rather than betting on any official's dovish or hawkish stance. In the long run, this actually benefits traders who truly understand fundamentals, and also benefits assets like Bitcoin that hedge against policy uncertainty. Stop dreaming that the Federal Reserve will continue to be the market's babysitter; it's time to grow up.