#Wosh’s first FOMC: Maintains interest rates, scraps forward guidance

Wosh’s boldest move in this FOMC is not maintaining interest rates, but completely throwing away the forward guidance crutch. He directly said, “Hope the market prices based on real economic conditions,” which amounts to openly admitting that over the past few years the Federal Reserve has been using language to influence how the market prices. It sounds rational, but in reality it shifts the blame onto traders themselves.

In the past, what the market feared most wasn’t data, but the “dot plot” and “expectation management.” Now that these are gone, traders have to read the hard data themselves—employment, CPI, PCE, and retail sales. **My trading adjustments are three things**: First, cut overall leverage by 30%-50%, because uncertainty is directly at its peak; second, put more focus on high-frequency economic calendars and actual data rather than speeches from Federal Reserve officials; third, increase hedged positions—my macro-hedging ratio for BTC and gold will rise noticeably. Without forward guidance, volatility is likely to be amplified for a period, and patience and discipline matter more than predictions.