Options market pricing: SpaceX has less than a 50% chance of becoming the world's most valuable company, and it may take years to achieve this leap.

Deep Tide TechFlow News. On June 18, according to CNBC, after SpaceX listed on Nasdaq at an estimated valuation of about $2.6 trillion, it quickly became the world’s fifth-largest publicly listed company and began competing with Amazon for market-cap rankings. However, based on how the options market is pricing it, the path for it to climb into the global top three—even to reach first place—may take a long time.

At present, SpaceX’s market capitalization still remains clearly behind third-place Alphabet and second-place Apple (both with market caps exceeding $4.4 trillion). For SpaceX to surpass them and become the world’s second-largest company by market value, only behind NVIDIA, its stock price would need to rise by about 70% to $340.

Based on market pricing using an implied-probability model from the options market, SpaceX has an approximately 50% probability of reaching the above target price by July 2028. If the target is to become the world’s top company by market capitalization (overtaking NVIDIA), the options market estimates that SpaceX will achieve this with a probability of about 38% by June 2028, and about 41% by the end of 2028.

Analysts say that options prices reflect the market’s collective expectations for the future path. Options with higher strike prices carry a higher implied uncertainty premium. This means that although SpaceX has a long-term growth narrative, reaching the top in market value is still viewed as a high-difficulty, long-cycle event.