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The US Dollar Index (DXY) is approaching a technical breakout, but the crypto market doesn't seem ready to face this old rival.
The negative correlation between DXY and Bitcoin has weakened after 2025, but it hasn't disappeared. When the US Dollar Index breaks through a key resistance level, emerging markets and risk assets will come under pressure, and the historical pattern of crypto fund outflows remains valid.
Currently, DXY is driven by hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve and global risk aversion sentiment. The Bank of England remains on hold, the Bank of Japan raises interest rates to 1%, and non-USD currencies weaken, inversely pushing up the dollar. If DXY confirms a breakout, the support level of $64k for Bitcoin will face a real test.
But on the other side of the coin: DXY's strength may already be partially priced in. Past breakouts have often been followed by a "sell the news" style rebound in the crypto market. The key is the sustainability of the breakout, not just the daily candlestick.
For traders, watching DXY is more direct than monitoring any on-chain indicator — it determines the direction of global liquidity flow.
$btc #dxy #defi #链上数据 #Blockchain