On the early morning of June 18 Beijing time, the first FOMC meeting chaired by new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wirth concluded. The FOMC unanimously decided with a 12-0 vote to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This is the fourth consecutive time the Fed has "hold steady."

Interest rates remain unchanged, but everything has changed.

The real impact comes from three levels.

First, the dot plot shifts from dove to hawk. In March, no one supported rate hikes, but among the 18 officials who submitted forecasts this time, 9 expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026, with 6 predicting at least two hikes. The median interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 has been sharply raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8%.

Second, inflation forecasts are significantly raised. The 2026 PCE inflation expectation jumps from 2.7% to 3.6%, and core PCE rises from 2.7% to 3.3%.

Third, all dovish language has been removed. The policy statement was shortened from over 300 words to about 130 words, removing all forward guidance regarding future rate cuts. Wirth stated that forward guidance is not suitable for the current policy environment.

This is a hawkish signal.

After the decision was announced, BTC dropped sharply, falling over 1% in the short term, briefly touching a low of $64,600, and continued to decline. Over the past 24 hours, the entire network experienced over $430 million in liquidations, with more than 100k traders wiped out. The slight rebound over the previous three days was completely erased.

Expectations of liquidity tightening have further strengthened. CME data shows the probability of a rate hike in December has risen to 78%. The long-standing "easy money feast" is coming to an end. The market will also enter a new cycle dominated by "higher for longer" interest rates. The "water buffalo" logic that supported the bull market over the past two years is receding.