What truly determines the long-term price trend of BTC is the global M2, which is a ledger figure that won't change due to any news.

Lyn Alden's research data from 2013 to 2024 shows that the correlation between BTC and global M2 is as high as 0.94, far exceeding gold's 0.83 and the US stock index's 0.60-0.75, with M2 turning points leading BTC prices by 70-90 days. As of June 2026, the total M2 of the world's four major central banks has surpassed $101.8 trillion, hitting a record high; China's M2 balance is 353.67 trillion yuan, up 8.6% year-on-year, and the US M2 is up 4.3% year-on-year, with global liquidity still in an expansion channel.
During the period when BTC retraced 52% from the high of $126,198, M2 did not contract; it was only the Iran war and leverage deleveraging that caused a short-term decoupling, and the lagging effect of M2 is still on the way. Whether BTC has an ETF or not, it will rise with M2 to over $120k; ETFs are just accelerators, not engines.
The industry needs a rise, M2 liquidity injection is a hard fact, halving supply contraction is a hard mechanism, and the bull-bear cycle of BTC requires a rise to complete the ecological loop. After falling for five years, from a cyclical position, there is no more room to fall.
M2 is still expanding, the lagging effect has not yet materialized, on-chain valuation is at the bottom area, and the halving cycle points to a Q4 turning point. $60,000 is the key bottom line for BTC; holding it confirms the cycle bottom. The $70,000-$75,000 range above is the watershed for reclaiming the 200-day moving average and reopening upward space. Now is not the time for panic, but the time to layout according to the cycle rhythm.
This global M2 is the sum of the broad money supply of all countries, derived from data published by various central banks, reflecting the total liquidity level in the global economy and measuring global liquidity. #沃什首秀美联储利率不变 $BTC