#沃什首秀美联储利率不变 Waller’s debut: Federal Reserve keeps interest rates unchanged, hinting at a new policy shift

New Federal Reserve Chair Waller presided over his first policy meeting since taking office. The rate adjustment the market broadly expected did not materialize. The Federal Reserve unanimously approved the resolution to keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged in the 3.5%-3.75% range. Beneath what appears to be a routine outcome lies a major change in the monetary policy communication framework and future expectations. The most core change in this meeting is that Waller has completely abandoned the forward guidance used for years, dramatically streamlined the policy statement, and no longer pre-defines a policy path for the market. He argues that investors should rely on real economic data to judge market conditions independently, freeing themselves from dependence on the Federal Reserve’s verbal guidance. At the same time, he announced the establishment of five special working groups to rebuild the Federal Reserve’s operating model across dimensions such as the inflation framework, the balance sheet, and market communication, kicking off a new cycle of policy governance.

The accompanying economic forecast dot plot released clear hawkish signals. Half of the officials believe there is a chance of a rate hike within 2026. Inflation expectations were raised sharply, while the forecast for economic growth was lowered at the same time, reflecting increasing worries within the Federal Reserve about a rebound in inflation. Although the Fed is choosing to hold steady for now, its policy stance has completely moved away from the earlier easing bias, shifting to a neutral tone that balances rate hikes and cuts, shattering the market’s previous fantasies of imminent rate cuts. After the decision took effect, global assets saw rapid, unusual moves: U.S. Treasury yields rose, the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and U.S. stocks and gold fell sharply across the board. This shows that the market was hit by unexpectedly hawkish signals, and investors need to adjust to a new trading environment characterized by “no clear guidance, data-driven pricing.”

Waller’s debut keeping rates unchanged is essentially a compromise of short-term waiting and long-term tightening. At present, the U.S. job market remains resilient, and inflation is still far from the 2% target. An unwarranted rate hike would suppress economic vitality, while an immediate rate cut would heighten the risk of an inflation rebound. Therefore, the Federal Reserve chose to maintain a high-interest-rate environment and leave ample time for observation. But reforms to the communication mechanism and the hawkish tilt in the dot plot suggest that future policy will not easily turn loose. Global U.S. dollar liquidity will continue to remain relatively tight, and valuations of various risk assets will face long-term downward pressure. This debut made the market realize that under Waller’s leadership, the Federal Reserve no longer deliberately tries to soothe the market; policy judgments will be more pragmatic, and uncertainty will increase significantly. Going forward, investment should focus even more on core data such as inflation and employment, and investors can no longer rely on policy statements to anticipate the direction of market moves.