The Federal Reserve's dot plot has exploded; out of 18 people, 9 are calling for a rate hike this year, and 6 even think it might happen multiple times.

I thought we could take a breather in June, but these folks have directly locked in the probability of rate hikes until the end of the year, waiting for a dip to buy again.

It was very clear this morning, $BTC , if it drops below 65,000, the short-term outlook becomes bearish, with the high from 67,200 moving down to 66,400, and support further down at 64,250-63,850—this was the key zone for a trend reversal from bullish to bearish a couple of days ago.

Looking at the market now, around 64k, fluctuating, down 2.54% over 24 hours.

Every time it dips back to 67-68k, the script is pretty much the same: first fall to 65-64k, then a rebound. But this rebound, as long as it doesn’t retake 66,200, will see support move down to 63,800.

Short positions at 65,750-66,000, take profit at 64,666 and 64,255, stop loss at 66,300.

Long positions at 63,888-63,666, take profit at 64,800 and 65,250, stop loss at 63,300.

I really can’t believe it—I was still hoping for a rate cut at the beginning of the month, and now they’re directly flipping to a hawkish dot plot. Every time this “hope-disappointment” cycle happens, it’s usually a sell-off of longs first, then shorts, with emotions repeatedly being squeezed.

Don’t chase after the dips; if it breaks, just accept it.

I don’t have any positions now, waiting for this dip to finish before looking for an entry. Don’t pretend to be a guru—keep your positions in check.

Speaking of which, I suddenly remembered something. Strategy (formerly MicroStrategy)’s preferred stock STRC closed at $89 yesterday, the lowest since IPO, with a yield soaring to 12.9%.

The company immediately came out saying “selling $BTC can pay dividends for 32 years”—which, translated, is an indirect admission that they might be paying dividends by selling Bitcoin.

This actually has a significant impact. If STRC continues to fall, the market will keep an eye on Strategy’s $BTC cost basis, and once it approaches that level, liquidity expectations across the sector will be suppressed.

$ETH and altcoins will also be shaken out, funds will first hide in $USDT/$USDC, and in the futures market, long positions need to be cautious of chain liquidations.

Do you think this rate hike expectation will materialize earlier, or will it be like before—loud noise but little rain? #我的Gate交易时刻 #沃什首秀美联储利率不变 #预测世界杯加拿大VS卡塔尔