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Market core consensus: In July, the Federal Reserve will keep the benchmark interest rate unchanged, with certainty dominating completely.
80% of funds are betting on no change in interest rates, with odds of only 1.25x, making it the most probable among three scenarios with the lowest payout;
17% are betting on a 25 basis point rate hike; only 3% are betting on a 25 basis point rate cut.
The market almost rules out the possibility of a rate cut in July, with only slight speculation on the risk of another rate hike.