#沃什首秀美联储利率不变 After the Fed Chairman Change: Warsh's Debut, Global Market Reactions, and Historical Performance

The new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh presided over his first Federal Reserve policy meeting on Wednesday, June 17, 2026 (local time), and delivered a highly anticipated keynote speech at the subsequent press conference. Due to his demonstration of a very strong "systemic reform" resolve in the speech, this speech was seen by the market as a declaration that the Fed's policy style has entered the "Warsh era." Below is a summary of the core content of his speech and policy announcement:
1. Monetary Policy Decision: Hold Steady, but Hawkish Expectations Emerge!
Maintain rates unchanged: The Federal Open Market Committee unanimously voted to keep the benchmark rate in the 3.50% - 3.75% range.
Hints of future rate hikes: Although this time holding steady, quarterly economic forecasts show that, influenced by supply shocks from Middle East conflicts and rising energy prices, U.S. inflation has risen to a high of 4.2%.
Nine out of twelve members expect at least one rate hike before the end of this year, which contrasts sharply with the market’s previous expectation of rate cuts.
2. Key Points of the Speech: Ruthless Reshaping of the Fed’s Communication Mechanism
Warsh sharply cut back the Fed’s past communication style, emphasizing a return to simplicity and directness:
Abandon "Forward Guidance": Warsh explicitly stated that, in the current economic environment, forward guidance "is not applicable." He straightforwardly said, "I cannot provide any forward guidance on future interest rates. The good news is, we will meet again in six weeks."
This means the Fed will no longer try to pre-emptively guide market expectations but will base decisions entirely on subsequent economic data (Data-dependent).
Significantly reduce policy statements: The policy statement issued at this meeting was extremely simplified, removing many verbose modifiers, merely indicating the rate decision and reaffirming the adequacy of reserves in the banking system.
Refuse to participate in "dot plots": As a long-time critic of quarterly economic forecasts and dot plots, Warsh practiced his own philosophy—he is the only Fed official among all members to refuse to submit individual rate forecasts (dot plot positions).
Hint at reducing the frequency of press conferences: Warsh quoted his mentor’s motto: "Press conferences are useful, but only if you truly have important things to say when you hold them."
Imply that future meetings may not necessarily have press conferences every time.
3. Launch of the "Five Major Policy Working Groups" Restructuring Plan
To achieve a thorough reflection and reshaping of the Fed’s operational model, Warsh announced the establishment of five new dedicated working groups in his speech. These groups will bring in top minds from both inside and outside the Fed’s economics community, starting from "first principles," and propose reforms in the following core areas by the end of this year:
Monetary Policy Communication: Study how to streamline and optimize the way the Fed signals to the market.
Balance Sheet: Assess how to reduce the Fed’s massive balance sheet.
Quality of Economic Data: Re-examine the data sources and analytical frameworks relied upon for decision-making.
Productivity: Focus on how productivity and capital investment can boost potential economic growth (Warsh specifically emphasized that current U.S. productivity and capital investment remain strong).
Labor Market: Evaluate metrics for maximizing employment.
4. Emphasize the 2% Inflation Target
In response to previous speculation that he might yield to White House pressure to tolerate inflation or modify the target, Warsh gave a very firm positive response in his speech:
"We have the ability and confidence to achieve the 2% price stability goal. This commitment is firm, consistent, and unequivocal. It’s an important signal that the Fed has lacked over the past five years, and we are now here to thoroughly address this issue."
5. Market Reactions
Because Warsh’s debut demonstrated a strongly hawkish communication style (no forward guidance, colleagues hinting at rate hikes, tough stance on fighting inflation), it not only dashed the market’s previous expectations of rate cuts but also increased future policy uncertainty.
All three major U.S. stock indices plummeted after the press conference: the Dow Jones fell by 500 points, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq both declined over 1.2%, the Russell 2000 dropped 0.72%, and the VIX fear index rose 12%.
6. Reviewing the Years of Past Fed Chairs, Market Environment, and the One-Year Performance of the U.S. Major Indices After Taking Office
Over the past 40+ years, a new Fed chair taking office does not necessarily mean poor stock market performance. Except for Greenspan, who took office during the 1987 stock crash, most of the other chairs saw positive returns in the first year of their tenure.
What truly influences market performance is often not who the chair is but the economic cycle at the time they take over:
- Volcker faced hyperinflation,
- Bernanke faced a housing bubble,
- Yellen inherited the QE era,
- Warsh is entering a new cycle shaped by AI investments, fiscal deficits, and high interest rates.
Although history does not predict the future, we will see how the future unfolds.