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Persistent inflation has extended expectations of interest rate cuts, and finally, against the backdrop of AI infrastructure boom, humanity has begun a major cycle of wealth transfer.
The key turning point of this phenomenon was the start of the US-Iran war, with oil prices continuously rising, raising inflation expectations.
The market was short on cash, but capital was afraid of missing the future opportunity, so Google, META, and Amazon first invested to drive the AI absolute leader in the US stock market, NVIDIA, directly causing a surge in semiconductor sector company performance.
At this stage, people were still joking that the US stock market's seven giants and AI large models were signing contracts to boost stock prices.
However, the continuous fulfillment of orders directly caused a serious imbalance in supply and demand for storage, with the Korean stock market becoming the direct beneficiary of storage shortages, turning Korea's stock market into a frenzy.
Meanwhile, Japan's stock market, which supplies raw materials for chip companies, also rose due to the continuous supply of high-end materials.
We underestimated the frenzy of this AI big cycle spreading, and beyond semiconductor chips, Chinese optical module companies receiving large orders began to exert effort.
With confirmed orders, high prosperity, and high profits stacking together, the US semiconductor technology sector, Korea's storage, Japan's materials, and China's optical modules resonated, laying the foundation for this AI industry bull market.
Everyone, whether on or off the car, understands that although these companies are already overdrawing their performance for the next three years, it doesn't prevent making money at this moment.
As time reaches the end of the US-Iran war, inflation driven by the war still transmits, but the actual implementation of rate hikes will greatly squeeze development.
However, under the current market liquidity shortage, an AI industry that begins to siphon other sectors' chains is truly starting.
US consumer stocks have long stopped rising, Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has fallen more than 10% behind the S&P 500, the S&P 500 has underperformed the Nasdaq, the Nasdaq has underperformed SMH, and SMH has underperformed DRAM.
US software companies also look like a bear market.
The advantage of holding US stocks is that shareholders are treated as people; in such highly profitable large companies, even if they are being drained, they are not far from value investing.
Korea's stock market is the most eye-catching, and Koreans love high leverage, so we often see deleveraging scenes in Korea's stock market, especially with circuit breakers, limit downs, and limit ups—essentially, Koreans are more excitable and crazy.
The structural bull market in China's stock market also appears amid chaos, with the most difficult investors being Chinese stockholders.
Initially, there was a move to divest foreign capital, then a wave of IPOs to siphon funds, followed by quantitative funds starting to harvest.
Ultimately, most remaining investors are those with long-term endurance holding blue-chip, white-horse stocks.
As the economic downturn cycle begins, stock indices have fallen to historic lows.
When everyone has no confidence, the government intervenes—no longer choosing blue-chip stocks but instead boosting bank, insurance, and red-chip funds.
As the market stabilizes, multiple sub-sectors such as gold, rare earths, military industry, securities, new energy, new consumption, and real estate recovery frequently emerge.
But each sector is short-lived.
Chinese investors' endurance is the highest in the world.
In this situation, many still hold infrastructure stocks, waiting for the index to rise and a full bull market.
But this market is a switch-over; there is no full bull, only AI fully siphoning off various sectors—those with earnings and those without.
Anything unrelated to AI is being drained.
Currently, A-shares only stand in the light and are recorded in the chips.
Any AI analysis of an A-share AI stock makes its price seem unreasonable, but it is genuinely profitable.
Other companies not in this sector, no matter how excellent their performance, will not rise.
Money flowing into AI will mock other value investors— even if you're China's Buffett, buying Labo Labo, you'll be laughed at...
This AI bloodsucker will not give up the last drop of blood from carbon-based life.
Bitcoin, after entering a bear market cycle, has become particularly fragile— a 10% rebound can lead to a 20% drop.
Profitable sell-off funds have all shifted into AI infrastructure stocks.
Former mining farms have transformed into data centers.
Crypto exchanges, through securities firms and RWA, have directly brought US stocks to the doorstep of cryptocurrencies.
Projects issuing tokens have also turned profits into AI shares.
Market makers are starting to violently harvest.
These winners in zero-sum crypto games are quickly running with the sweat money of retail investors into AI.
When everyone praises FTX founder's investment vision, they don't realize that the money he invested was from crypto users.
A thief being caught only proves there are many other thieves still at work.
This is also why many people are leaving cryptocurrencies— the industry's original intention and funds are shifting toward AI...
When all this happens, we know AI's process is accelerating, and not all AI assets are being "old-ified."
Besides the stock market, we also see that people in various countries are experiencing economic downturns.
Everyone hopes AI will develop rapidly to replace human jobs, but also worries about tomorrow's breakfast money.
One fact is:
The world is voting with money, and humanity is at a crossroads.
We are experiencing the pain of economic decline and rapid AI development.
As individuals, we must choose what our key focus should be next.