Review of the Cryptocurrency and Macro Markets on June 18

Last night, the FOMC and Waller made their debut, essentially confirming my pre-market judgment:
Interest rates remain unchanged, at 3.50%—3.75%, no suspense there.
The real focus isn't "no rate hike," but that the Federal Reserve has completely dashed the market’s rate cut fantasies.
Last night I said it was neutral leaning hawkish, but the actual outcome was clearly hawkish.
A few key signals:
1. The statement was significantly shortened, removing the forward rate guidance
Waller’s first move was not to rush to give the market answers, but to tell the market: don’t expect the Fed to feed forward guidance every day anymore.
2. Waller himself did not submit a dot plot
This is interesting. Not because he has no opinions, but because he’s generally opposed to the market treating the dot plot as a script for trading.
However, other officials’ dot plots are more hawkish: out of 18 members, 9 believe there will be rate hikes this year, only 1 expects a cut.
3. Inflation expectations are clearly revised upward
Although oil prices have fallen due to easing tensions between the US and Iran, the Fed did not interpret this as “early easing.”
Their attitude is very clear: energy shocks can ease, but inflation is not beaten yet.
4. Waller’s style is confirmed
He is not the “rate cut machine” that Trump imagined, nor is he simply a Powell 2.0.
He is more like a reformist, rule-based, less committed: less talk about the path, more focus on data, rebuilding the Fed’s authority.
So after last night, the market’s main theme has changed:
It was previously about trading “when will the rate cut happen”; now it’s about trading “will there be a rate hike again this year.”
This is very relevant for gold, BTC, and US stocks.