#沃什首秀美联储利率不变

Wash's debut: No change in interest rates, but the Fed's "soul" has moved

On June 17th, local time, Kevin Wash presided over his first policy meeting as the 17th Chair of the Federal Reserve. The interest rate decision was unsurprising—FOMC unanimously voted 12-0 to keep the federal funds rate target range at 3.50% to 3.75%, marking the fourth consecutive pause this year. The market had anticipated this, with FedWatch showing a 99.6% probability of holding rates steady.

What truly took Wall Street's breath away was another development: Wash nearly dismantled the communication framework the Fed has maintained for the past twenty years.

The policy statement shrank from over 300 words to about 130 words, a 62% reduction, the shortest in 19 years. All language hinting at "further rate adjustments" was removed, and forward guidance was completely canceled. More notably, Wash refused to submit a personal dot plot forecast, becoming the first Fed chair in 14 years not to participate in the dot plot. During the press conference, he straightforwardly said, "I cannot provide any forward guidance on the next steps."

Behind the "less talk" is a more hawkish stance. Although rates remained unchanged, the latest dot plot shows that out of 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year—compared to zero in March. The median interest rate forecast for the end of 2026 jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. Meanwhile, inflation forecasts were revised upward across the board: the median PCE inflation rate increased from 2.7% to 3.6%. Wash repeatedly emphasized "price stability" and pledged to bring inflation back to the 2% target—yet the US CPI in May had already risen to 4.2%.

The market responded swiftly. The three major US stock indices all closed lower, with the Dow plunging over 500 points from its intraday record high. The S&P 500 posted its worst debut performance among recent Fed chairs since 1994. The so-called "new bond king," Gundlach, lamented, "The market completely misjudged Wash earlier."

This debut sent a clear and strong signal: the Fed under Wash is shifting from being a "market guide" to a "principle defender." Rates are temporarily unchanged, but the change in communication rules may have a more profound impact than rate hikes themselves.