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XAUT/USDT Recovers Above 4,300 as Easing Geopolitical Risks Weigh on the US Dollar

Gold-backed XAUT/USDT regained positive momentum on Thursday, climbing back above the 4,300 level during the Asian session as traders reacted to a softer US Dollar and improving geopolitical sentiment. The rebound follows a period of heightened volatility that pushed prices toward key support zones earlier this month.

Market sentiment improved after the United States and Iran signed a preliminary Memorandum of Understanding aimed at reducing tensions and restoring stability in the region. The agreement includes efforts to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a critical route for global energy shipments. In addition, US President Donald Trump indicated that the 60-day negotiation period for a final nuclear agreement should not be viewed as a strict deadline, helping to ease concerns about an immediate escalation in geopolitical risks.

The development encouraged investors to lock in profits on recent US Dollar gains. As the Greenback pulled back from its strongest levels since late March, gold found fresh demand, allowing XAUT/USDT to extend its recovery from recent lows.

Despite the latest rebound, the broader macro environment remains challenging for precious metals. The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate within the 3.5%-3.75% range at its first policy meeting under Chair Kevin Warsh. While the decision itself was widely expected, the tone of the meeting surprised markets.

The central bank removed language that previously suggested a bias toward monetary easing and revised its year-end rate projections higher. Policymakers now expect the federal funds rate to finish the year around 3.8%, compared with the 3.4% forecast issued in March. The shift reinforced expectations that rates could remain elevated for longer, with traders now assigning a high probability to an additional 25-basis-point hike later this year.

As a result, US Treasury yields surged and the Dollar strengthened immediately following the announcement. Rising yields generally reduce the attractiveness of non-yielding assets such as gold, meaning that the Fed's hawkish outlook could continue to cap upside momentum despite the recent recovery.

Technical Analysis: Buyers Defend Key Support Zone

From a technical perspective, XAUT/USDT is showing encouraging signs of stabilization after a sharp corrective decline. The market recently tested the 4,100 region, where buyers stepped in aggressively and prevented a deeper breakdown.

The successful defense of support near 4,155 suggests that long-term participants continue to view lower prices as attractive accumulation levels. The rebound from this area has improved short-term sentiment and reduced immediate downside risks.

Price is now approaching a critical resistance zone around 4,398. This level represents the first major challenge for buyers and could determine whether the current recovery evolves into a broader trend reversal.

A successful breakout above 4,398 would likely attract additional momentum buyers and expose the next upside target near 4,504. Beyond that, resistance is seen at 4,759 and 4,867, two areas that previously generated significant selling pressure.

Should bullish momentum strengthen further, attention could shift toward the larger recovery targets at 5,470 and 5,616. Reaching these levels would confirm that the correction from recent highs has likely ended and that a new upward trend is developing.

Support Levels Remain Crucial

While the short-term outlook has improved, bulls still need to protect the key support area at 4,155. A decisive move below this level would invalidate the current recovery structure and increase the risk of another wave of selling.

In that scenario, XAUT/USDT could slide toward 3,881, with a deeper correction potentially extending to the major support zone around 3,533.

Momentum Signals Show Early Improvement

Technical indicators are beginning to favor a recovery scenario. Momentum readings have rebounded from oversold territory, while bearish pressure continues to weaken after dominating price action for several weeks.

Although trend confirmation has not yet been fully established, the latest rebound suggests sellers are gradually losing control. The market now appears to be transitioning from a correction phase toward a potential accumulation period.

Key Levels to Watch

Bullish Targets

- 4,398
- 4,504
- 4,759
- 4,867
- 5,470
- 5,616

Bearish Levels

- 4,155
- 3,881
- 3,533

Outlook

XAUT/USDT is attempting to build a stronger recovery after successfully defending a major support zone. The combination of easing geopolitical tensions and a weaker US Dollar has provided near-term support, though the Federal Reserve's hawkish stance remains a significant headwind for gold.

For now, traders should closely monitor the 4,398 resistance level. A decisive break above this barrier would provide the first strong indication that buyers are regaining control and could pave the way for a broader recovery toward higher resistance zones in the weeks ahead.

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$XAUT ‌