#沃什首秀美联储利率不变

Wosh's debut: No change in interest rates, but the Fed's "playbook" has changed

In the early hours of June 18, 2026, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wosh completed his "debut." The interest rate decision itself was unsurprising—FOMC voted 12-0 unanimously to keep the federal funds rate target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%. This is the Fed's fourth consecutive unchanged rate decision and the first unanimous vote in nine months. Before the meeting, the CME FedWatch tool showed a 99.6% probability of holding rates steady.

But what truly shook the market was not the "no change" in rates itself, but the several "fires" Wosh brought.

First fire: Major slimming down of the policy statement, from 341 words to 130 words

The first thing Wosh did was to completely rewrite the Fed's policy statement. This time, the statement was about 130 words, compared to 341 words in the previous meeting on April 29. The statement removed key forward guidance language such as "further adjustments" that previously hinted at rate cuts, and did not clearly express a bias toward raising or cutting rates. Wosh stated plainly at the press conference: "The statement is a bit shorter, a bit simpler, and has abandoned some old language," "The statement just gives you the facts, the facts as we can judge them."

This marks a return to the concise, pragmatic communication style of the Greenspan era—reducing policy guidance to the market and softening pre-commitments on the rate path. Wosh has long criticized the Fed for "talking too much," once saying that central bank officials "may become prisoners of their own words." In his view, if markets only trade around the Fed's language, the Fed might lose the most important source of information.

Second fire: Dot plot shifts from dovish to hawkish, probability of rate hikes this year rises to 83%

Although the statement "said less," the dot plot "spoke loudly."

The latest dot plot shows that out of 18 officials providing projections, 9 expect at least one rate hike before the end of 2026. The median forecast for the federal funds rate at the end of 2026 jumped from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, an upward revision of 40 basis points. The distribution is: 1 expects a 75 basis point hike, 5 expect a 50 basis point hike, 3 expect a 25 basis point hike, 8 expect no change, and only 1 expects a 25 basis point cut. Nick Timiraos, known as the "New Fed Correspondent," called this a "very hawkish" dot plot.

Inflation data supports the hawkish stance—May US CPI rose 4.2 year-over-year, reaching a new high since May 2023; producer price index surged 6.5%. After the outbreak of conflict with Iran, energy prices soared, compounded by tariffs from the Trump administration, jointly increasing inflation pressures. The Fed also sharply raised its PCE inflation forecast for this year from 2.7% to 3.6%, with core PCE rising from 2.7% to 3.3%; economic growth forecasts were revised down from 2.4% to 2.2%.

CME FedWatch tool shows that after the decision, the probability of a rate hike in October rose to 60.7%, whereas markets previously bet on delaying hikes until December; short-term interest rate futures imply an 83.1% chance of rate hikes this year.

Third fire: Wosh "does not draw the dot," the first chair in 14 years to refuse to submit projections

The most symbolic moment was that Wosh himself did not submit a dot plot projection, becoming the first Fed chair in 14 years to do so. He stated directly at the press conference: "Providing a dot plot does not help in conducting policy," "It’s not helpful in the conduct of policy."

For a long time, Wosh has been strongly reserved about the dot plot, believing it limits the Fed's decision-making flexibility. He encouraged other officials to continue submitting forecasts but chose not to participate himself. Market observers generally believe that Wosh may ultimately try to eliminate the dot plot mechanism altogether. He also announced that he will conduct a comprehensive review of the Fed's communication methods by the end of the year, including press conferences, dot plots, and meeting minutes.

Fourth fire: Five working groups, a comprehensive restructuring of the Fed

In addition to communication reforms, Wosh announced the formation of five special working groups covering core Fed functions: monetary policy communication mechanisms, balance sheet management, macro data sources and data dependency systems, productivity and labor market research, and inflation policy frameworks and the impact of AI and new technologies on monetary policy.

Wosh said the goal is to build a Fed that is "fully aware of its mission, adaptable to its goals, and focused on the future." He also admitted that over the past five years, the Fed has failed to clearly communicate its determination to lower inflation, and this reform will focus on repairing that communication shortcoming.

Market reaction: US stocks plunge, gold and silver under pressure

Despite the rate decision meeting expectations, Wosh's "hawkish" reforms caught the market off guard. After the announcement, US stocks tumbled—Dow down 0.98%, S&P 500 down 1.21%, Nasdaq down 1.34%. Spot gold fell below $4,300 per ounce, spot silver dropped 3% to $67.88. US Treasury yields rose, and the dollar strengthened.

A subtle background: Trump’s "letting go" and "not letting go"

Wosh's uniqueness lies in his relationship with Trump. When Trump nominated Wosh, many expected him to lean toward rate cuts. But Wosh, upon taking office, signaled clearly that he favored rate hikes in his debut.

Trump commented after the rate decision that the Fed holding rates steady "is okay," "doesn't matter." Regarding possible rate hikes this year, he said they "may happen," but also noted that rate hikes "are unusual and would drag on economic growth." However, he publicly expressed support for Wosh, saying "the Fed now has a very capable leader, and he will follow Wosh's ideas."

This "special trust" creates a dual constraint: Wosh must maintain the Fed's independence while also needing to preserve White House trust to have policy maneuvering space.

Wosh's debut sent a clear signal: the Fed is moving from "talking a lot" to "talking less," from "forecast-driven" to "data-driven," from "dovish inertia" to "hawkish possibility." Although rates haven't changed, the Fed's "playbook" has already shifted. For market participants accustomed to parsing every word of Fed statements for policy signals over the past few years, greater uncertainty may just be beginning.