June 18th, early morning Beijing time, the Federal Reserve maintained interest rates as expected, but the “hawkish debut” of new Chair Powell delivered an unexpected shock to the crypto market.

📉 Short-term market review: Expectations fall short, market “vote with their feet”
After the decision was announced, the crypto market responded quickly with negative reactions:
· Price decline: Bitcoin briefly fell over 1%, touching a low of about $64,600; Ethereum dropped below $1,750, down approximately 2.4% in 24 hours.
· Market sentiment hit: Over the past 24 hours, total liquidations across the network reached $435 million, with over 100k traders liquidated. Bitcoin’s weak three-day rebound was completely wiped out.
· Correlation effect: The decline in the crypto space was not isolated; during the same period, the three major US stock indices all fell over 1%, gold dropped 1.66%, and the US dollar index surged 0.87%.
🔍 Core logic analysis: Why does “standing still” become a negative signal?
The reason why this “unchanged” decision was so impactful is because the core of market trading has never been “interest rate unchanged,” but rather “expectation gap.” Three hawkish signals completely shattered the market’s illusion of easing:
1. Dot plot “from dove to hawk”: The dot plot shows the median interest rate at the end of 2026 rising sharply from 3.4% in March to 3.8%. Among 18 officials, 9 expect at least one rate hike this year, with 6 predicting at least two hikes.
2. Statement removes rate cut guidance: The post-meeting statement removed previous language hinting at a possible rate cut in the future, and the statement was significantly shortened to about 130 words (last time over 300), completely closing the door on rate cuts this year.
3. Inflation expectations sharply raised: The 2026 PCE inflation forecast was raised from 2.7% to 3.6%, acknowledging that inflation stickiness exceeds expectations.
🔭 Market trend projection
1. Short-term (next few weeks): Volatile and weak, digesting hawkish signals
This is the current core state. The market needs time to digest the hawkish shift, and risk appetite is unlikely to recover in the short term. Technically, Bitcoin is repeatedly tugging near the $65,000 level, with heavy resistance above (66,800–67,300 USD), and attention should be paid to the support at $64,000.
2. Mid-term (next few months): Focus on two key variables
· Inflation data: If subsequent CPI and other data show controlled inflation, rate hike expectations may ease, giving the market a breather; otherwise, hawkish stance will be reinforced, suppressing prices.
· Powell’s new policy framework: Powell announced the formation of a working group for comprehensive reform. If he successfully guides the Fed into a “less forward guidance” framework, the market will lose an important policy anchor, and volatility may increase.
3. Long-term (more than half a year): Rebuilding pricing logic
This meeting marks the end of the “easing narrative” since 2025. Cryptocurrencies will enter a new cycle dominated by “higher for longer” interest rates. If the Bank of Japan also hikes rates, global liquidity will tighten systematically, posing a harsher test for leverage environments.
In summary, the June 18, 2026, Federal Reserve rate decision has become a significant watershed in the global risk asset pricing logic. For the crypto space, the “water buffalo” logic supporting the bull market over the past two years is receding, and the market needs to find new narratives and pricing anchors. In this process, high volatility will be the norm, and risk management is more important than ever. #PowellDebutFedInterestRateUnchanged