A weak rebound after a sharp crash! The 4220 life-and-death line is holding for now; a rebound is a good opportunity to short!

The Federal Reserve’s decision on Thursday triggered a cliff-like drop in gold. During today’s Asian session, gold briefly touched the key support at 4218, then rebounded slightly. It is currently trading around 4321. Overall, the market is showing a weak pattern of “technical mean reversion after a crash.” The bears’ dominant position has not changed. The 4220 area is the last line of defense for short-term bulls; if it breaks, a new round of accelerated downside will begin.

Technical indicators are broadly bearish. On the daily timeframe, a standard “engulfing” bearish candle has formed: the real body fully covers the bullish candles from the previous two days, showing an overwhelming bearish advantage. After the TRIX trend indicator formed a death cross at high levels, it has continued to move downward. The MACD fast and slow lines are deeply diverging below the 0 axis. Although the green momentum bars have slightly converged, their scale is still large—bearish momentum has not been fully released, and rebound room is strictly limited. On the four-hour timeframe, the moving average system is aligned bearishly. Price has been consistently constrained by short-term moving averages such as MA10 and MA20. The middle band of the Bollinger Bands in the 4350–4360 area forms strong resistance. The RSI has rebounded slightly from the oversold zone (around 24) to 31, but there has been no obvious turn, indicating that the rebound lacks sustainability. The current rebound is a typical technical repair of a “downtrend continuation,” not a trend reversal signal. Its core purpose is to accumulate selling pressure for further dips. Market sentiment is extremely panicked: the precious metals fear index has fallen to 18, and the scale of ETF net outflows has expanded further. Combined with warming hawkish expectations from the Federal Reserve, this further reinforces the foundation of the bearish trend. In the evening, closely watch U.S. initial jobless claims data. If the data is favorable, it is expected to accelerate the gold price’s move lower; the 4100–4150 range below will become an important support zone.

Prudent positioning: short in the 4355–4380 range and the 4425–4445 range. Targets are 4300–4280. After a break below the key support at 4220, you can add to short positions accordingly, aiming for the 4170–4200 area, with special attention to the 4120 support.
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