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South Korea's KOSPI Index today first broke through the 9,000-point integer barrier, rising over 1% intraday, with a year-to-date increase of over 110%.
Behind this milestone is a resonance of multiple positive factors:
De-escalation of geopolitical risks: The United States and Iran reached a ceasefire agreement and reopened the Strait of Hormuz. Previously suppressed risks of Middle Eastern conflicts affecting Korean stocks have been largely alleviated, with oil prices falling below $79 per barrel, significantly reducing costs for export companies.
Continuous drive from the AI semiconductor industry: Major AI storage chip giants like Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix are the absolute main players. Goldman Sachs expects profits of Korean companies to grow by 300% by 2026 and has raised the KOSPI target to 12,000 points. Institutions like Morgan Stanley have also significantly raised their target levels.
Funding dynamics forming a synergy: As uncertainties like SpaceX's IPO are eliminated, foreign capital continues to flow back, and retail investors in Korea are strongly buying, creating a positive upward cycle.
However, there are signs of market divergence: While the KOSPI rises, the number of declining stocks far exceeds that of rising stocks. The small-cap KOSDAQ index has actually fallen, indicating that funds are highly concentrated in semiconductor giants.
Additionally, the Federal Reserve has signaled an interest rate hike within the year, and the Korean won against the US dollar has fallen to 160.7, with exchange rate pressure remaining an unavoidable risk.
The 9,000-point level has shifted from an investment bank target to a reality, and the market has entered a new pricing range. Whether it can stabilize and continue to advance depends on whether corporate profits can sustain their growth and on changes in the external liquidity environment.