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Doubts Ahead of US–Iran Meeting Spark Oil Market Uncertainty

Focus on Crude Oil:

IEA cuts global oil demand forecast for 2026 and warns of a large supply surplus in 2027.
A ceasefire agreement has been signed by the US President and Iran, the Strait of Hormuz will soon be reopened, says Pakistan’s PM.
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Thursday, June 18, 2026 — Oil prices this morning are seen moving bearish, weighed down by sentiment following the release of the pessimistic IEA outlook, and the signing of the ceasefire agreement by the US President and Iran. Even so, Trump’s renewed threats have become a positive catalyst that supports prices, as they trigger doubts about the official US–Iran meeting in Switzerland this Friday.

In the June Oil Market Report released on Wednesday, the EIA once again cut its forecast for global oil demand for 2026, down by 1.1 million bph, or down by 700,000 bph from the previous estimate. This weaker projection comes as the IEA assesses that the potential reopening of the Strait of Hormuz could restore oil flows from the Persian Gulf. The IEA also warns that global oil supply could increase by about 8 million bph to 110.3 million bph in 2027, as production in the Eastern Middle East recovers and OPEC+ production targets rise.

Also weighing on prices, ceasefire agreement documents were signed on Wednesday night by both US President Donald Trump and Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian, according to an official statement from the White House. As a first step, Tehran will soon reopen the Strait of Hormuz and the US will immediately lift the naval blockade, Pakistan Prime Minister Shebhaz Sharif said, adding that he helped mediate talks between the two sides.

Even so, Trump said that the signed agreement is not final, and the US could attack Iran again if it does not like the final deal to be signed in Switzerland on Friday—whose details have not yet been released. Trump also emphasized that the US is not investing in Iran, following earlier reports that the US is prepared to allow investment funds for Iran in exchange for Tehran’s agreement to a final settlement.

Meanwhile, a report released Wednesday night by the EIA showed US crude oil inventories fell by 8.26 million barrels in the week ending June 12, exceeding initial expectations that stocks would fall by 4.6 million barrels. The decline also marks the largest since February. Gasoline stocks were also reported to have fallen by 906,000 barrels. The EIA report indicates strong demand in the US oil market.

From a technical perspective, oil prices may encounter the nearest resistance at the level of $77 per barrel. However, if negative catalysts emerge, prices could fall to the nearest support level of $72 per barrel.