Wosh's debut "Cutting Navigation": The Federal Reserve's new chair's three statements shake up the crypto world, Bitcoin narrowly holds above 64k — Is this deregulation or a prelude to rate hikes?

Early morning June 18, new Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Wosh made his first appearance at the FOMC meeting, maintaining interest rates but "hawkish voices rise." He cut forward guidance, downplayed the dot plot, and hinted that "inflation remains well above 2%," directly causing Bitcoin to fall below $64k and over $43 million in liquidations across the network. Trump responded calmly with "possible rate hikes," but the market panicked — without policy anchors, the crypto world is facing its most turbulent summer.

At 2 a.m., when Wosh entered the press conference, crypto traders hadn't realized that this seemingly "steady" rate decision would become one of the most dangerous turning points in the crypto market by 2026.

Interest rates unchanged, but everything has changed

The Fed kept the federal funds rate unchanged for the fourth consecutive time at 3.50%-3.75%, which was the market consensus. What truly shook global assets was the "communication revolution" brought by Wosh —

First statement: "Inflation remains well above 2%, don’t expect rate cuts."

In May, US CPI year-over-year soared to 4.2%, PPI hit 6.5%, reaching multi-year highs. Wosh did not dodge this hot potato but faced it head-on: "We are committed, consistent, and clear in our promise. And this is an important message we have failed to convey for the past five years. We will make up for this."

Second statement: "Abandon forward guidance, don’t guess what I think anymore."

This FOMC statement shrank from 314 words in Powell’s era to 132 words, removing all hints about future policy paths. Wosh straightforwardly said: "The statement only gives you facts, not expectations."

Third statement: "The dot plot drawn with a pencil doesn’t count."

Wosh himself did not submit a rate forecast and announced the formation of five working groups to comprehensively review the Fed’s communication framework, with reforms to be completed by year-end. Nine members expect rate hikes this year, six predict multiple hikes — a stark contrast to the March forecast of a single rate cut.

Crypto bloodbath: Bitcoin barely holds above 64k, institutional exodus

As soon as Wosh finished speaking, the market voted with its feet. The three major US stock indices all plunged, Dow down 507 points, Nasdaq down 1.34%; the two-year US Treasury yield surged 16 basis points to 4.21%, hitting a one-year high; the dollar index soared about 1%, possibly marking its best single-day performance in nearly a year.

Bitcoin was hit even harder. Before the rate decision on June 17, BTC struggled near $65k; after Wosh’s speech, the price briefly dipped to $63,929, finally closing at $64,273, down about 1.78% in 24 hours. More dangerously, this marks another leg in Bitcoin’s "cut in half" journey from its October 12, 2025, high of $126k.

What truly terrifies the market is the fleeing of institutional funds. Over the past 7 days, spot Bitcoin ETF net outflows reached $337 million; during 13 days from late May to early June, institutions dumped about $4.4 billion — the most brutal withdrawal record since ETFs’ inception. Coinbase’s premium index fell to -0.15%, meaning US institutional buyers are bidding lower than overseas retail investors — an unprecedented anomaly in two years.

Even MicroStrategy’s "Bitcoin perpetual motion machine" Strategy couldn’t withstand it, announcing the first sale of 32 BTC in history in early June — a small amount but a nuclear signal. Michael Saylor once claimed to hold Bitcoin for 100 years, but now even he is starting to sell, illustrating the market’s confidence collapse.

Trump’s "calm" and the market’s "panic"

What’s intriguing is Trump’s reaction. At the G7 summit in France, he said the Fed’s steady stance was "no problem," even adding, "this could very well happen" — referring to rate hikes. But he quickly added a patch: "Such moves are very unusual and will suppress economic growth."

This seemingly contradictory statement actually hides a deeper meaning. On one hand, Trump wants to maintain the appearance of independence for Wosh — "letting Wosh do things his way." On the other hand, he can’t help but remind: don’t really crash my economy. For Wosh, this means walking a tightrope between political pressure and technical rationality.

Is Wosh really deregulating, or paving the way for rate hikes?

On the surface, Wosh appears to be "deregulating" — reducing the Fed’s nanny-like guidance, allowing price discovery to return to the market. But closer inspection suggests it’s more about clearing the way for rate hikes.

Why?

First, data doesn’t support rate cut fantasies. In May, non-farm payrolls grew by 172k, exceeding expectations, showing a resilient labor market; energy prices fell due to US-Iran ceasefire, but core inflation remains sticky. Wosh explicitly rejected the old-school view of "tolerating higher inflation for employment," stating the goal of achieving "strong growth, low prices, and full employment" — which in the current environment is almost equivalent to "controlling inflation first."

Second, the dot plot has shown its fangs. The median interest rate forecast for 2026 was raised from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, above the current rate. The CME FedWatch tool shows traders’ probability of rate hikes in September surging from 27% to 49%. The market is re-pricing, and Wosh’s "silence" is amplifying this uncertainty.

Third, Greenspan-style "ambiguity" is a hawkish weapon. Wosh has long criticized excessive transparency, believing forward guidance creates false security. Now, mimicking Greenspan’s "thoughtful" stance, he’s actually keeping policy flexibility in his hands — when data warrants, he can pivot to tightening at any time without apologizing to the market.

Retail survival guide: A ship without navigation needs a compass more than ever

After Wosh dismantled the "policy navigation," crypto volatility will only increase. A single employment report, inflation data, or even a tweet from Trump could instantly wipe out the market.

But there is a glimmer of hope in the darkness. On-chain data shows that long-term holders absorbed 125k BTC in June against the trend — classic "smart money" accumulating in panic. The Fear & Greed Index remains in the extreme fear zone at 21, but has rebounded from lower levels, hinting that the market may be shifting from "panic selling" to "bottoming and consolidating."

For retail investors, the most pragmatic strategies now are:

First, reduce leverage. In the past 24 hours, $43 million in liquidations, 71% from longs — high leverage in a volatile environment is suicide.

Second, watch the key support at $60k–$62k. This is the confluence of the 200-week moving average and the breakout level for 2024. If lost, the next line of defense is $52k–$55k.

Third, monitor ETF fund flows. When institutions stop net outflows and start re-entering, it will be the strongest signal of trend reversal.

Fourth, hedge with gold. During the chaos of the Fed "cutting navigation," gold’s value as a non-credit asset becomes more apparent. Spot gold is pressured by the strong dollar, but central bank gold purchases and structural debt concerns still support it.

Wosh’s debut marks a paradigm shift from "transparent central bank" to "flexible central bank." For the crypto world, this means the end of the comfortable days of "watching the Fed’s face to trade" from 2021 to 2025.

This is not deregulation but returning decision-making power and risk back to the market. Trump’s "possible rate hike" comment was calm, but the summer of crypto is destined to be anything #我的Gate交易时刻 but peaceful.