On June 17, 2026, U.S. time, the Federal Reserve announced its June FOMC interest rate decision, keeping the federal funds target range unchanged at 3.50%—3.75%, in line with market expectations. What truly caused a stir was the simultaneously released "dot plot"—out of 18 officials who submitted forecasts, 9 (half) expected at least one rate hike in 2026, with 1 expecting a 75 basis point increase, 5 expecting a 50 basis point increase, and 3 expecting a 25 basis point increase; another 8 believed rates should stay unchanged, with only 1 predicting a cut. This caused the median rate forecast for the end of 2026 to be sharply revised upward from 3.4% in March to 3.8%, marking a shift in Fed policy expectations from "rate cuts within the year" to "not ruling out rate hikes," described as "very hawkish" by the "New Fed News Agency" Timilus.

This meeting also marked the debut of new Chair Kevin Waugh. He did not submit a dot plot forecast himself, and his statement removed previous forward guidance hints suggesting rate cuts, announcing the formation of five working groups to comprehensively review the Fed’s communication framework and inflation target setting. The economic forecast summary also raised this year's PCE inflation median estimate to 3.6%, core PCE to 3.3%, and slightly lowered GDP growth expectations to 2.2%, reflecting the decision-makers’ heightened vigilance over inflation resilience, surpassing concerns about growth.

Following the announcement, the 2-year U.S. Treasury yield surged over 13 basis points in a single day, the dollar index strengthened, the three major U.S. stock indices briefly declined, and gold prices dipped in the short term. Interest rate futures markets quickly re-priced, with the implied probability of a 25 basis point rate hike before the end of the year surpassing 60%. Analysts pointed out that the actual rate hike window might be in September or December, ultimately depending on subsequent inflation and employment data—if energy prices push inflation to stay above expectations, the scenario of a rate hike supported by half of the officials could come to fruition.